Is SECURE Waste’s (TSX:SES) Buyback Activity a Sign of Strength or Defensive Capital Allocation?

• SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. recently reported second quarter 2025 results, with quarterly sales of CA$2.47 billion and net income of CA$31 million, alongside an update on its ongoing share buyback program after repurchasing over 7.4 million shares.
• Despite lower year-over-year sales and a steep drop in six-month net income, steady quarterly profitability and active share repurchases signal a continued focus on shareholder returns.
• We will assess how continued execution of the share buyback program could influence the company's investment outlook and analyst expectations.

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SECURE Waste Infrastructure Investment Narrative Recap

To hold shares in SECURE Waste Infrastructure, investors need to believe in the long-term upside from the company’s mix of waste management and energy infrastructure services across Canada and the United States. The latest earnings came in softer year-over-year, but steady quarterly profitability and the continuation of share repurchases did not materially impact the most significant near-term catalyst: the planned expansion into metal recycling and heavy oil terminals. The main risk remains revenue stability, as recent divestitures could make a meaningful difference to the growth outlook if new initiatives underperform.

Among recent announcements, the quarterly earnings report stands out: while sales for Q2 fell to CA$2.47 billion and six-month net income dropped sharply compared to last year, basic earnings per share from continuing operations edged up to CA$0.14, perhaps reflecting the impact of share buybacks. This progress links directly back to the main catalyst of operational scale, since improved efficiencies and asset performance are critical as the company contends with a smaller revenue base post-divestiture.

However, despite the company’s financial flexibility and ongoing buybacks, investors should be mindful that the risk from uneven revenue following key asset sales still remains a material factor for...

Read the full narrative on SECURE Waste Infrastructure (it's free!)

SECURE Waste Infrastructure's narrative projects CA$1.8 billion revenue and CA$261.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 44.0% yearly revenue decline and a CA$63.3 million earnings increase from current earnings of CA$198.0 million.

Uncover how SECURE Waste Infrastructure's forecasts yield a CA$17.67 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from CA$0.17 to CA$50.17, reflecting a wide spectrum of expectations. With divestitures pressuring the revenue base, it is clear why different investors see the company’s future so differently; you can compare these perspectives to challenge your own view.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on SECURE Waste Infrastructure - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own SECURE Waste Infrastructure Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SECURE Waste Infrastructure research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SECURE Waste Infrastructure research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SECURE Waste Infrastructure's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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