Meren Energy's (TSE:MER) Solid Earnings Have Been Accounted For Conservatively

Meren Energy Inc.'s (TSE:MER) solid earnings announcement recently didn't do much to the stock price. We did some digging, and we think that investors are missing some encouraging factors in the underlying numbers.

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A Closer Look At Meren Energy's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to September 2025, Meren Energy had an accrual ratio of -0.11. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$125m, well over the US$65.4m it reported in profit. Given that Meren Energy had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of US$125m would seem to be a step in the right direction. Having said that, there is more to consider. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.

View our latest analysis for Meren Energy

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Meren Energy issued 53% more new shares over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. Check out Meren Energy's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting Meren Energy's Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

As it happens, we don't know how much the company made or lost three years ago, because we don't have the data. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is having a rather significant impact on shareholders.

In the long term, if Meren Energy's earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Meren Energy's profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$76m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. In the twelve months to September 2025, Meren Energy had a big unusual items expense. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Meren Energy's Profit Performance

In conclusion, both Meren Energy's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative, but the dilution means that per-share performance is weaker than the statutory profit numbers imply. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that Meren Energy's underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. If you want to do dive deeper into Meren Energy, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Meren Energy you should be mindful of and 1 of these bad boys doesn't sit too well with us.

Our examination of Meren Energy has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.