InPlay Oil Valuation

Is IPO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IPO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IPO (CA$1.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$22.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IPO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IPO?

Key metric: As IPO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for IPO. This is calculated by dividing IPO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is IPO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.2x
EarningsCA$18.82m
Market CapCA$154.10m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does IPO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for IPO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.3x
ORC.B Orca Energy Group
11.7xn/aCA$164.6m
PRQ Petrus Resources
4.2xn/aCA$176.9m
ALV Alvopetro Energy
8.7x81.7%CA$176.6m
JOY Journey Energy
28.6x27.0%CA$141.6m
IPO InPlay Oil
8.2x-7.4%CA$154.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: IPO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (13.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does IPO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management
1.2x-41.1%US$60.60m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners
1xn/aUS$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital
0.7xn/aUS$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities
1.4xn/aUS$4.37m
IPO 8.2xIndustry Avg. 10.6xNo. of Companies15PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: IPO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IPO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IPO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.2x
Fair PE Ratio6.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: IPO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IPO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$1.72
CA$3.18
+84.9%
13.0%CA$4.00CA$2.90n/a5
Dec ’25CA$1.80
CA$3.18
+76.7%
13.0%CA$4.00CA$2.90n/a5
Nov ’25CA$1.89
CA$3.29
+74.1%
11.7%CA$4.00CA$2.90n/a5
Oct ’25CA$2.01
CA$3.58
+78.1%
6.5%CA$4.00CA$3.30n/a5
Sep ’25CA$2.16
CA$3.58
+65.7%
6.5%CA$4.00CA$3.30n/a5
Aug ’25CA$2.24
CA$3.66
+63.4%
5.4%CA$4.00CA$3.45n/a5
Jul ’25CA$2.22
CA$3.66
+64.9%
5.4%CA$4.00CA$3.45n/a5
Jun ’25CA$2.31
CA$3.66
+58.4%
5.4%CA$4.00CA$3.45n/a5
May ’25CA$2.37
CA$3.69
+55.7%
4.7%CA$4.00CA$3.50n/a5
Apr ’25CA$2.42
CA$3.69
+52.5%
4.7%CA$4.00CA$3.50n/a5
Mar ’25CA$2.37
CA$4.39
+85.2%
25.2%CA$6.50CA$3.60n/a5
Feb ’25CA$2.14
CA$4.39
+105.1%
25.2%CA$6.50CA$3.60n/a5
Jan ’25CA$2.21
CA$4.92
+122.6%
16.9%CA$6.50CA$4.25n/a5
Dec ’24CA$2.35
CA$4.92
+109.4%
16.9%CA$6.50CA$4.25CA$1.805
Nov ’24CA$2.56
CA$4.92
+92.2%
16.9%CA$6.50CA$4.25CA$1.895
Oct ’24CA$2.77
CA$4.87
+75.8%
17.1%CA$6.50CA$4.25CA$2.015
Sep ’24CA$2.69
CA$4.87
+81.0%
17.1%CA$6.50CA$4.25CA$2.165
Aug ’24CA$2.68
CA$4.95
+84.7%
16.1%CA$6.50CA$4.25CA$2.245
Jul ’24CA$2.47
CA$5.10
+106.5%
14.7%CA$6.50CA$4.50CA$2.225
Jun ’24CA$2.52
CA$5.70
+126.2%
33.7%CA$9.50CA$4.50CA$2.315
May ’24CA$2.70
CA$6.03
+123.3%
28.9%CA$9.50CA$5.00CA$2.375
Apr ’24CA$2.69
CA$6.13
+127.9%
27.6%CA$9.50CA$5.00CA$2.425
Mar ’24CA$2.83
CA$6.58
+132.5%
33.7%CA$11.00CA$5.25CA$2.375
Feb ’24CA$2.79
CA$6.58
+135.8%
33.7%CA$11.00CA$5.25CA$2.145
Jan ’24CA$3.03
CA$6.90
+127.7%
29.9%CA$11.00CA$5.50CA$2.215
Dec ’23CA$3.11
CA$6.90
+121.9%
29.9%CA$11.00CA$5.50CA$2.355

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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