InPlay Oil Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of IPO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

IPO (CA$1.72) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$22.87)

Is IPO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IPO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IPO (CA$1.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$22.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IPO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IPO?

Key metric: As IPO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for IPO. This is calculated by dividing IPO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is IPO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	8.2x
Earnings	CA$18.82m
Market Cap	CA$154.10m

IPO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.8x
PEG Ratio	-1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does IPO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for IPO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.3x
ORC.B Orca Energy Group	11.7x	n/a	CA$164.6m
PRQ Petrus Resources	4.2x	n/a	CA$176.9m
ALV Alvopetro Energy	8.7x	81.7%	CA$176.6m
JOY Journey Energy	28.6x	27.0%	CA$141.6m
IPO InPlay Oil	8.2x	-7.4%	CA$154.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: IPO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (13.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does IPO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
HAM Highwood Asset Management	1.2x	-41.1%	US$60.60m
ALPS.U Alpine Summit Energy Partners	1x	n/a	US$24.02m
KUB.H Carcetti Capital	0.7x	n/a	US$5.82m
GCOM Green Shift Commodities	1.4x	n/a	US$4.37m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: IPO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (10.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IPO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IPO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.2x
Fair PE Ratio	6.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: IPO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IPO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CA$1.72	CA$3.18 +84.9%	13.0%	CA$4.00	CA$2.90	n/a	5
Dec ’25	CA$1.80	CA$3.18 +76.7%	13.0%	CA$4.00	CA$2.90	n/a	5
Nov ’25	CA$1.89	CA$3.29 +74.1%	11.7%	CA$4.00	CA$2.90	n/a	5
Oct ’25	CA$2.01	CA$3.58 +78.1%	6.5%	CA$4.00	CA$3.30	n/a	5
Sep ’25	CA$2.16	CA$3.58 +65.7%	6.5%	CA$4.00	CA$3.30	n/a	5
Aug ’25	CA$2.24	CA$3.66 +63.4%	5.4%	CA$4.00	CA$3.45	n/a	5
Jul ’25	CA$2.22	CA$3.66 +64.9%	5.4%	CA$4.00	CA$3.45	n/a	5
Jun ’25	CA$2.31	CA$3.66 +58.4%	5.4%	CA$4.00	CA$3.45	n/a	5
May ’25	CA$2.37	CA$3.69 +55.7%	4.7%	CA$4.00	CA$3.50	n/a	5
Apr ’25	CA$2.42	CA$3.69 +52.5%	4.7%	CA$4.00	CA$3.50	n/a	5
Mar ’25	CA$2.37	CA$4.39 +85.2%	25.2%	CA$6.50	CA$3.60	n/a	5
Feb ’25	CA$2.14	CA$4.39 +105.1%	25.2%	CA$6.50	CA$3.60	n/a	5
Jan ’25	CA$2.21	CA$4.92 +122.6%	16.9%	CA$6.50	CA$4.25	n/a	5
Dec ’24	CA$2.35	CA$4.92 +109.4%	16.9%	CA$6.50	CA$4.25	CA$1.80	5
Nov ’24	CA$2.56	CA$4.92 +92.2%	16.9%	CA$6.50	CA$4.25	CA$1.89	5
Oct ’24	CA$2.77	CA$4.87 +75.8%	17.1%	CA$6.50	CA$4.25	CA$2.01	5
Sep ’24	CA$2.69	CA$4.87 +81.0%	17.1%	CA$6.50	CA$4.25	CA$2.16	5
Aug ’24	CA$2.68	CA$4.95 +84.7%	16.1%	CA$6.50	CA$4.25	CA$2.24	5
Jul ’24	CA$2.47	CA$5.10 +106.5%	14.7%	CA$6.50	CA$4.50	CA$2.22	5
Jun ’24	CA$2.52	CA$5.70 +126.2%	33.7%	CA$9.50	CA$4.50	CA$2.31	5
May ’24	CA$2.70	CA$6.03 +123.3%	28.9%	CA$9.50	CA$5.00	CA$2.37	5
Apr ’24	CA$2.69	CA$6.13 +127.9%	27.6%	CA$9.50	CA$5.00	CA$2.42	5
Mar ’24	CA$2.83	CA$6.58 +132.5%	33.7%	CA$11.00	CA$5.25	CA$2.37	5
Feb ’24	CA$2.79	CA$6.58 +135.8%	33.7%	CA$11.00	CA$5.25	CA$2.14	5
Jan ’24	CA$3.03	CA$6.90 +127.7%	29.9%	CA$11.00	CA$5.50	CA$2.21	5
Dec ’23	CA$3.11	CA$6.90 +121.9%	29.9%	CA$11.00	CA$5.50	CA$2.35	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.