International Petroleum Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a good week for International Petroleum Corporation (TSE:IPCO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.6% to CA$23.74. Revenue of US$172m surpassed estimates by 2.6%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 77% below expectations at US$0.03 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, International Petroleum's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$702.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 44% to US$0.44. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$696.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.36 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a massive increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

See our latest analysis for International Petroleum

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of CA$26.07, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on International Petroleum, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$30.06 and the most bearish at CA$23.04 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the International Petroleum's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.6% per year. It's pretty clear that International Petroleum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around International Petroleum's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that International Petroleum's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$26.07, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for International Petroleum going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for International Petroleum you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.