Major Estimate Revision • Jul 02
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from CA$0.747 to CA$0.83. Revenue forecast unchanged at CA$812.0m. Net income forecast to shrink 8.2% next year vs 47% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in Canada . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at CA$15.38. Share price was steady at CA$11.83 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 23
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.12 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 June 2026. Payment date: 15 July 2026. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 75%, and the cash payout ratio is above 100%. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.4%). In line with average of industry peers (3.5%). Live News • Jun 22
Headwater Exploration Approved to Buy Back 10% Float While Raising Dividend Headwater Exploration has received approval for a normal course issuer bid that permits the company to repurchase up to 10% of its public float, alongside announcing an increase to its dividend.
These moves directly affect how Headwater Exploration allocates capital between internal uses and direct cash returns, and the combination of buybacks with a higher dividend can change the balance between income and potential per share ownership for existing shareholders.
The stock last traded at around CA$12.26, with a year-to-date gain of 28.5%, meaning the buyback and dividend decisions are being made after a period of strong share price performance.
Together, the buyback capacity and higher dividend signal that management currently has room to return cash to shareholders, but they also increase the company’s ongoing cash commitments, which can matter if commodity prices or operating conditions weaken. Recent Insider Transactions • May 11
Lead Independent Director recently sold CA$1.3m worth of stock On the 5th of May, Kevin Olson sold around 100k shares on-market at roughly CA$13.32 per share. This transaction amounted to 3.4% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$13m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Declared Dividend • May 06
First quarter dividend of CA$0.12 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.12. Ex-date: 30th June 2026 Payment date: 15th July 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 5.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (75% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (298% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 2.4% per year over the past 4 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 9.5% over the next year. However, it would need to fall by 16% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • May 01
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: CA$0.15 (vs CA$0.21 in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: CA$0.15 (down from CA$0.21 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: CA$132.4m (down 6.4% from 1Q 2025). Net income: CA$35.6m (down 29% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 27% (down from 35% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 3% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 30% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 25
Independent Director recently sold CA$624k worth of stock On the 23rd of March, David Pearce sold around 50k shares on-market at roughly CA$12.48 per share. This transaction amounted to 7.1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger sale worth CA$1.6m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$12m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 24
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 March 2026. Payment date: 15 April 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 68% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 3.4%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.7%). In line with average of industry peers (3.5%). Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 11
Independent Director recently sold CA$689k worth of stock On the 9th of March, David Pearce sold around 57k shares on-market at roughly CA$12.09 per share. This transaction amounted to 7.5% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, they made an even bigger sale worth CA$1.6m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$11m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Announcement • Mar 10
Headwater Exploration Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 20, 2026 Headwater Exploration Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 20, 2026. Declared Dividend • Mar 09
Fourth quarter dividend of CA$0.11 announced Dividend of CA$0.11 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 31st March 2026 Payment date: 15th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.6%, which is lower than the industry average of 5.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (68% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (152% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 3.2% per year over the past 3 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 26% over the next 2 years. Since a fall of 24% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. Price Target Changed • Mar 06
Price target increased by 16% to CA$13.31 Up from CA$11.44, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 8.3% above last closing price of CA$12.29. Stock is up 103% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$0.56 for next year compared to CA$0.64 last year. Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.64 (down from CA$0.80 in FY 2024). Revenue: CA$507.1m (flat on FY 2024). Net income: CA$153.2m (down 19% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 30% (down from 37% in FY 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 5.9%. Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 24% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Jan 27
Price target increased by 8.2% to CA$10.94 Up from CA$10.11, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of CA$11.30. Stock is up 67% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$0.68 for next year compared to CA$0.80 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 22
Chief Operating Officer recently sold CA$1.6m worth of stock On the 19th of January, Brad Christman sold around 150k shares on-market at roughly CA$10.52 per share. This transaction amounted to 15% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Brad's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 24
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 December 2025. Payment date: 15 January 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 59% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.9%). In line with average of industry peers (4.4%). Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 22
Chief Financial Officer recently sold CA$635k worth of stock On the 16th of December, Alexandra Horvath sold around 73k shares on-market at roughly CA$8.76 per share. This transaction amounted to 7.1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth CA$954k. This was Alexandra's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 10
Independent Director recently sold CA$954k worth of stock On the 5th of December, Stephen Larke sold around 100k shares on-market at roughly CA$9.54 per share. This transaction amounted to 11% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$1.1m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Price Target Changed • Dec 05
Price target increased by 9.7% to CA$10.06 Up from CA$9.17, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 6.0% above last closing price of CA$9.49. Stock is up 39% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$0.65 for next year compared to CA$0.80 last year. Announcement • Dec 04
Headwater Exploration Inc. Approves Budget of Quarterly Dividend for the Fiscal Year of 2026 Headwater Exploration Inc.'s Board has approved an initial 2026 budget of quarterly dividend of $0.11/common share representing an approximate 5.0% yield. Announcement • Dec 04
Headwater Exploration Inc. Approves an Initial 2026 Budget of Annual Production Headwater Exploration Inc. approved an initial 2026 budget of annual production of 24,500 boe/d representing 8% year over year production per share growth. The 2026 budget is expected to generate 8% production per share growth at a 37% re-investment rate of adjusted funds flow from operations at USD 60.00/bbl WTI, while paying a $0.44/common share annual dividend and maintaining positive 2026 exit adjusted working capital. Declared Dividend • Nov 02
Third quarter dividend of CA$0.11 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.11. Ex-date: 31st December 2025 Payment date: 15th January 2026 Dividend yield will be 5.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 5.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (59% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (151% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 3.2% per year over the past 3 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 34% over the next 2 years. A fall of 34% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, which means the dividend may be at risk. Reported Earnings • Oct 31
Third quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.15 (down from CA$0.20 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CA$125.5m (down 2.7% from 3Q 2024). Net income: CA$35.9m (down 25% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 29% (down from 37% in 3Q 2024). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.2%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Oct 31
Headwater Exploration Inc. Declares a Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on January 15, 2026 The Board of Directors of Headwater Exploration Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend to shareholders of $0.11 per common share payable on January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 31, 2025. This dividend is an eligible dividend for the purposes of the Income Tax Act (Canada). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 09
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 9.6% to CA$7.63. The fair value is estimated to be CA$9.77, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 18% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 8.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 3.9% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 33% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 22
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 September 2025. Payment date: 15 October 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 54% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 5.8%. Within top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.4%). Declared Dividend • Jul 28
Second quarter dividend of CA$0.11 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.11. Ex-date: 29th September 2025 Payment date: 15th October 2025 Dividend yield will be 5.9%, which is higher than the industry average of 5.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (54% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (117% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 3.2% per year over the past 3 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 47% over the next 3 years. Since a fall of 40% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, the dividend may be at risk. Reported Earnings • Jul 24
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.16 (down from CA$0.23 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: CA$120.5m (down 11% from 2Q 2024). Net income: CA$38.0m (down 29% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 32% (down from 40% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was primarily driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.7% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year. Upcoming Dividend • Jun 23
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 June 2025. Payment date: 15 July 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 48% and the cash payout ratio is 94%. Trailing yield: 6.1%. Within top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.7%). Announcement • May 27
Headwater Exploration Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Jul 23, 2025 Headwater Exploration Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results After-Market on Jul 23, 2025 Board Change • May 13
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 7 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. Independent Director Cheree Stephenson was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • May 05
First quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.21 (up from CA$0.16 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: CA$141.5m (up 26% from 1Q 2024). Net income: CA$50.0m (up 33% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 35% (up from 34% in 1Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 4.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 11% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • May 02
Headwater Exploration Inc. Declares Cash Dividend for the Second Quarter, Payable on July 15, 2025 The Board of Directors of Headwater has declared a quarterly cash dividend to shareholders of $0.11 per common share payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 30, 2025. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to CA$5.26, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 5x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Total loss to shareholders of 9.4% over the past three years. Declared Dividend • Mar 17
Fourth quarter dividend of CA$0.11 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.11. Ex-date: 31st March 2025 Payment date: 15th April 2025 Dividend yield will be 6.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 5.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (50% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (111% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 4.9% per year over the past 2 years and payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 44% over the next 3 years. A fall of 44% would increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range, which means the dividend may be at risk. Reported Earnings • Mar 14
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.80 (up from CA$0.66 in FY 2023). Revenue: CA$511.5m (up 20% from FY 2023). Net income: CA$188.0m (up 21% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 37% (in line with FY 2023). Oil reserves Proven reserves: 30.117 MMbbls Gas reserves Proven reserves: 28.483 Bcf LNG reserves Proven reserves: 0.239 MMbbls Combined production Oil equivalent production: 7.414 MMboe (6.581 MMboe in FY 2023) Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 7.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.9% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Mar 14
Headwater Exploration Inc. Declares First Quarter Dividend, Payable on April 15, 2025 Headwater Exploration Inc. confirms a first quarter cash dividend to shareholders of $0.11 per common share payable on April 15, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 31, 2025. Announcement • Mar 04
Headwater Exploration Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2025 Headwater Exploration Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 08, 2025. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 24
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 December 2024. Payment date: 15 January 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 51% and the cash payout ratio is 86%. Trailing yield: 6.7%. Within top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.8%). Major Estimate Revision • Nov 14
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast increased from CA$529.6m to CA$590.5m. EPS estimate unchanged from CA$0.93 at last update. Oil and Gas industry in Canada expected to see average net income growth of 13% next year. Consensus price target reaffirmed at CA$9.39. Share price fell 2.8% to CA$6.87 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Nov 11
Third quarter dividend of CA$0.10 announced Dividend of CA$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 31st December 2024 Payment date: 15th January 2025 Dividend yield will be 5.8%, which is higher than the industry average of 5.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (51% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (79% cash payout ratio). The dividend has not increased over the past 2 years but payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 8.1% over the next 2 years. However, it would need to fall by 43% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Nov 08
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CA$0.20 (vs CA$0.21 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.20 (down from CA$0.21 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CA$129.7m (up 3.7% from 3Q 2023). Net income: CA$47.6m (down 4.1% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 37% (down from 40% in 3Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 1.3% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 20
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 September 2024. Payment date: 15 October 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 51% and the cash payout ratio is 95%. Trailing yield: 6.1%. Within top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (5.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.8%). Declared Dividend • Jul 29
Second quarter dividend of CA$0.10 announced Dividend of CA$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 27th September 2024 Payment date: 15th October 2024 Dividend yield will be 5.5%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (25% earnings payout ratio) but not adequately covered by cash flows (96% cash payout ratio). The dividend has not increased over the past 2 years but payments have been stable during that time. Earnings per share has grown by 59% over the last 5 years. Unless this trend reverses, it should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Jul 26
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CA$0.23 (vs CA$0.13 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.23 (up from CA$0.13 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CA$135.6m (up 26% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CA$53.9m (up 74% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 40% (up from 29% in 2Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 37% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 26
Headwater Exploration Inc. Declares Third Quarter Dividend, Payable on October 15, 2024 The Board of Directors of Headwater Exploration Inc. has declared a quarterly cash dividend to shareholders of $0.10 per common share payable on October 15, 2024, to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 27, 2024. Recent Insider Transactions • Jul 01
Insider recently sold CA$734k worth of stock On the 24th of June, Jonathan Grimwood sold around 103k shares on-market at roughly CA$7.14 per share. This transaction amounted to 13% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth CA$9.7m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$30m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 23
Independent Director recently sold CA$832k worth of stock On the 20th of June, Chandra Henry sold around 119k shares on-market at roughly CA$6.98 per share. This transaction amounted to 17% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth CA$9.7m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$29m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Jun 10
CEO, President & Director recently sold CA$770k worth of stock On the 7th of June, Jason Jaskela sold around 108k shares on-market at roughly CA$7.13 per share. This transaction amounted to 95% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth CA$9.7m. Jason has been a net seller over the last 12 months, reducing personal holdings by CA$1.1m. Declared Dividend • May 13
First quarter dividend of CA$0.10 announced Dividend of CA$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 28th June 2024 Payment date: 15th July 2024 Dividend yield will be 5.2%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (58% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (152% cash payout ratio). The dividend has not increased over the past 2 years but payments have been stable during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 6.7% over the next year, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • May 10
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: CA$0.16 (vs CA$0.13 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$0.16 (up from CA$0.13 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: CA$112.5m (up 27% from 1Q 2023). Net income: CA$37.6m (up 26% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 34% (in line with 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 25% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 48% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 14
Insider recently sold CA$1.7m worth of stock On the 9th of April, Jonathan Grimwood sold around 200k shares on-market at roughly CA$8.35 per share. This transaction amounted to 20% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth CA$9.7m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$27m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 10
Independent Director recently sold CA$9.7m worth of stock On the 2nd of April, Stephen Larke sold around 1m shares on-market at roughly CA$7.81 per share. This transaction amounted to 56% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$25m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Apr 03
Chief Operating Officer exercised options and sold CA$202k worth of stock On the 28th of March, Brad Christman exercised options to acquire 26k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of CA$7.72 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. Since June 2023, Brad has owned 1.00m shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold CA$20m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Apr 01
Independent Director recently sold CA$5.1m worth of stock On the 28th of March, Stephen Larke sold around 660k shares on-market at roughly CA$7.76 per share. This transaction amounted to 23% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$18m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Mar 25
VP of Finance & CFO (Leave of Absence) exercised options and sold CA$689k worth of stock On the 20th of March, Alexandra Horvath exercised options to acquire 90k shares at no cost and sold these for an average price of CA$7.64 per share. This trade did not impact their existing holding. Since March 2023, Alexandra's direct individual holding has decreased from 1.17m shares to 1.01m. Company insiders have collectively sold CA$20m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Mar 20
Insider recently sold CA$1.9m worth of stock On the 18th of March, Terry Danku sold around 250k shares on-market at roughly CA$7.45 per share. This transaction amounted to 15% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$17m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Mar 20
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.10 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 March 2024. Payment date: 15 April 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 60% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 5.2%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.4%). In line with average of industry peers (5.0%). Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • Mar 15
Independent Director exercised options to buy CA$193k worth of stock. On the 11th of March, Kam Sandhar exercised options to buy 26k shares at a strike price of around CA$7.06, costing a total of CA$187k. This transaction amounted to 52% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since March 2023, Kam has owned 50.94k shares directly. Company insiders have collectively sold CA$21m more than they bought, via options and on-market transactions in the last 12 months. Declared Dividend • Mar 11
Fourth quarter dividend of CA$0.10 announced Dividend of CA$0.10 is the same as last year. Ex-date: 27th March 2024 Payment date: 15th April 2024 Dividend yield will be 5.7%, which is higher than the industry average of 5.4%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (60% earnings payout ratio) but not covered by cash flows (150% cash payout ratio). The company is yet to establish a track record of dividend growth or stability as it hasn't paid a regular dividend for at least 2 years. EPS is expected to decline by 3.5% over the next 2 years. However, it would need to fall by 33% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Mar 10
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: CA$0.66 (down from CA$0.71 in FY 2022). Revenue: CA$425.5m (up 14% from FY 2022). Net income: CA$156.1m (down 3.7% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 37% (down from 43% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Oil reserves Proven reserves: 22.79 MMbbls Gas reserves Proven reserves: 25.024 Bcf LNG reserves Proven reserves: 0.15 MMbbls Combined production Oil equivalent production: 6.581 MMboe (4.685 MMboe in FY 2022) Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.4% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Mar 01
Headwater Exploration Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 09, 2024 Headwater Exploration Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 09, 2024. Price Target Changed • Feb 14
Price target decreased by 7.5% to CA$8.46 Down from CA$9.14, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 33% above last closing price of CA$6.34. Stock is down 3.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of CA$0.65 for next year compared to CA$0.71 last year. Recent Insider Transactions • Jan 15
Lead Independent Director recently bought CA$599k worth of stock On the 10th of January, Kevin Olson bought around 100k shares on-market at roughly CA$5.99 per share. This transaction amounted to 3.1% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. Despite this recent purchase, insiders have collectively sold CA$18m more in shares than they bought in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • Dec 25
President recently sold CA$309k worth of stock On the 22nd of December, Jason Jaskela sold around 48k shares on-market at roughly CA$6.50 per share. This transaction amounted to 2.3% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Jason's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 22
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.10 per share at 6.1% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 December 2023. Payment date: 15 January 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 62% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 6.1%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.5%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.4%). Announcement • Nov 11
Headwater Exploration Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on January 15, 2024 The Board of Directors of Headwater has declared a quarterly cash dividend to shareholders of $0.10 per common share payable on January 15, 2024, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 29, 2023. This dividend is an eligible dividend for the purposes of the Income Tax Act (Canada). Reported Earnings • Nov 11
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: CA$0.21 (vs CA$0.14 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CA$0.21 (up from CA$0.14 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: CA$125.1m (up 65% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CA$49.7m (up 57% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 40% (down from 42% in 3Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 28% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in Canada. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 74% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 62% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 21
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.10 per share at 5.6% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 28 September 2023. Payment date: 16 October 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 53% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 5.6%. Lower than top quartile of Canadian dividend payers (6.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.0%). Recent Insider Transactions • Sep 19
Independent Director recently sold CA$314k worth of stock On the 12th of September, David Pearce sold around 43k shares on-market at roughly CA$7.31 per share. This transaction amounted to 4.4% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger sale from another insider worth CA$2.9m. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of CA$20m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Announcement • Sep 17
Headwater Exploration Inc. Announces Chief Financial Officer Changes Headwater Exploration Inc. appointed Georgia Little to the position of chief financial officer. Ali Horvath, the company's current chief financial officer, is expected to be on maternity leave in October. Little is a chartered professional accountant and she has been the controller of Headwater since April 2020. Announcement • Sep 15
Headwater Exploration Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on October 16, 2023 Headwater Exploration Inc. announced its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend to shareholders of CAD 0.10 per common share in alignment with the Company's return of capital strategy. This quarterly dividend will be paid on October 16, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 29, 2023. These dividends are designated eligible dividends for the purposes of the Income Tax Act (Canada).