Africa Oil Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of AOI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AOI (CA$2.06) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CA$3.66)

Is AOI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AOI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AOI (CA$2.06) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$3.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AOI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AOI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AOI. This is calculated by dividing AOI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AOI's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$677.15m

AOI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	205.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does AOI's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for AOI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1x
CJ Cardinal Energy	1.2x	23.7%	CA$1.1b
CR Crew Energy	0.8x	n/a	CA$1.1b
OBE Obsidian Energy	0.4x	54.1%	CA$703.8m
SDE Spartan Delta	1.5x	n/a	CA$684.1m
AOI Africa Oil	0.8x	62.7%	CA$912.6m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: AOI is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AOI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CA Oil and Gas Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	7.9%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	7.9%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: AOI is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the Canadian Oil and Gas industry average (1.3x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AOI's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AOI PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	0.8x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AOI's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AOI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CA$2.06	CA$3.23 +56.6%	8.8%	CA$3.49	CA$2.77	n/a	4
Aug ’25	CA$2.30	CA$3.27 +42.0%	8.5%	CA$3.50	CA$2.81	n/a	4
Jul ’25	CA$2.44	CA$3.28 +34.5%	8.5%	CA$3.52	CA$2.83	n/a	4
Jun ’25	CA$2.61	CA$3.21 +23.0%	9.3%	CA$3.50	CA$2.80	n/a	3
May ’25	CA$2.43	CA$3.21 +32.2%	9.0%	CA$3.49	CA$2.81	n/a	3
Apr ’25	CA$2.39	CA$3.20 +33.8%	9.5%	CA$3.50	CA$2.79	n/a	3
Mar ’25	CA$2.19	CA$3.19 +45.7%	9.5%	CA$3.50	CA$2.78	n/a	3
Feb ’25	CA$2.50	CA$3.19 +27.6%	9.5%	CA$3.50	CA$2.78	n/a	3
Jan ’25	CA$2.49	CA$3.39 +36.1%	13.4%	CA$3.76	CA$2.75	n/a	3
Dec ’24	CA$2.54	CA$3.29 +29.4%	14.3%	CA$3.76	CA$2.82	n/a	2
Nov ’24	CA$2.60	CA$3.28 +26.1%	14.4%	CA$3.75	CA$2.81	n/a	2
Oct ’24	CA$2.73	CA$3.26 +19.5%	14.9%	CA$3.75	CA$2.78	n/a	2
Sep ’24	CA$3.26	CA$3.27 +0.3%	14.8%	CA$3.76	CA$2.79	CA$2.06	2
Aug ’24	CA$3.14	CA$3.24 +3.1%	16.1%	CA$3.76	CA$2.71	CA$2.30	2
Jul ’24	CA$2.82	CA$3.10 +10.1%	12.8%	CA$3.50	CA$2.71	CA$2.44	2
Jun ’24	CA$2.88	CA$3.15 +9.3%	11.2%	CA$3.50	CA$2.80	CA$2.61	2
May ’24	CA$2.62	CA$3.14 +20.0%	11.3%	CA$3.50	CA$2.79	CA$2.43	2
Apr ’24	CA$3.03	CA$3.16 +4.3%	10.7%	CA$3.50	CA$2.82	CA$2.39	2
Mar ’24	CA$2.80	CA$3.02 +7.9%	7.4%	CA$3.25	CA$2.80	CA$2.19	2
Feb ’24	CA$2.72	CA$3.00 +10.3%	8.3%	CA$3.25	CA$2.75	CA$2.50	2
Jan ’24	CA$2.49	CA$3.16 +26.7%	11.3%	CA$3.51	CA$2.80	CA$2.49	2
Dec ’23	CA$2.87	CA$3.12 +8.6%	12.3%	CA$3.50	CA$2.73	CA$2.54	2
Nov ’23	CA$3.35	CA$3.15 -6.0%	11.0%	CA$3.50	CA$2.80	CA$2.60	2
Oct ’23	CA$2.56	CA$2.99 +16.6%	9.2%	CA$3.26	CA$2.71	CA$2.73	2
Sep ’23	CA$2.48	CA$2.97 +19.7%	9.5%	CA$3.25	CA$2.69	CA$3.26	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.