Fiera Capital Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Fiera Capital Corporation (TSE:FSZ) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CA$689m revenue coming in 3.7% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.23 missed the mark badly, arriving some 52% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Fiera Capital

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Fiera Capital's five analysts is for revenues of CA$716.9m in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 4.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 116% to CA$0.50. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$727.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.56 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 17% to CA$7.46, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Fiera Capital, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$8.75 and the most bearish at CA$6.50 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Fiera Capital's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.01% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 12% per year. So it's clear with the acceleration in growth, Fiera Capital is expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fiera Capital. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Fiera Capital analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Fiera Capital (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.