Spin Master Valuation

Is TOY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TOY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TOY (CA$28.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$60.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TOY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TOY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TOY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.1x
PEG Ratio1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TOY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TOY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.4x
DOO BRP
11x9.6%CA$6.4b
GOOS Canada Goose Holdings
30.3x17.8%CA$1.8b
GIL Gildan Activewear
12.4x1.9%CA$8.7b
9914 Merida Industry
43.9x32.9%NT$67.7b
TOY Spin Master
21.9x18.4%CA$3.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TOY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the peer average (24.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TOY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Leisure Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a29.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a29.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TOY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the Global Leisure industry average (18.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TOY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TOY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.9x
Fair PE Ratio19.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TOY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TOY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$28.50
CA$42.16
+47.9%
10.9%CA$46.16CA$35.03n/a9
Jun ’25CA$29.06
CA$41.89
+44.2%
10.9%CA$45.86CA$34.80n/a9
May ’25CA$30.34
CA$45.61
+50.3%
9.1%CA$50.72CA$39.78n/a9
Apr ’25CA$34.57
CA$45.79
+32.5%
8.9%CA$51.15CA$40.11n/a9
Mar ’25CA$32.46
CA$46.08
+41.9%
9.3%CA$50.95CA$39.96n/a9
Feb ’25CA$35.41
CA$48.11
+35.9%
7.6%CA$53.17CA$41.42n/a9
Jan ’25CA$34.86
CA$48.87
+40.2%
6.1%CA$52.71CA$42.39n/a8
Dec ’24CA$33.67
CA$49.50
+47.0%
6.0%CA$53.48CA$43.02n/a8
Nov ’24CA$32.98
CA$52.12
+58.0%
8.2%CA$61.51CA$46.11n/a8
Oct ’24CA$34.15
CA$49.64
+45.4%
5.5%CA$55.16CA$44.07n/a9
Sep ’24CA$36.86
CA$49.83
+35.2%
5.1%CA$55.00CA$44.86n/a9
Aug ’24CA$34.96
CA$48.29
+38.1%
4.7%CA$52.63CA$44.19n/a9
Jul ’24CA$35.05
CA$47.65
+35.9%
5.2%CA$52.67CA$42.92n/a9
Jun ’24CA$34.00
CA$49.01
+44.1%
6.0%CA$54.16CA$43.63CA$29.0610
May ’24CA$38.92
CA$47.89
+23.0%
8.0%CA$54.05CA$41.84CA$30.3410
Apr ’24CA$37.57
CA$47.35
+26.0%
8.5%CA$53.97CA$41.23CA$34.5710
Mar ’24CA$36.61
CA$48.29
+31.9%
11.1%CA$59.83CA$41.60CA$32.4610
Feb ’24CA$34.91
CA$47.11
+34.9%
11.2%CA$58.37CA$39.82CA$35.4110
Jan ’24CA$33.32
CA$48.14
+44.5%
11.7%CA$59.60CA$40.65CA$34.8610
Dec ’23CA$34.30
CA$48.01
+40.0%
12.0%CA$59.57CA$40.64CA$33.6710
Nov ’23CA$42.00
CA$61.74
+47.0%
11.4%CA$79.74CA$52.60CA$32.9811
Oct ’23CA$41.57
CA$66.93
+61.0%
10.0%CA$80.82CA$53.32CA$34.1511
Sep ’23CA$45.35
CA$64.18
+41.5%
8.9%CA$76.65CA$54.01CA$36.8611
Aug ’23CA$47.73
CA$62.87
+31.7%
9.6%CA$75.14CA$51.01CA$34.9611
Jul ’23CA$42.01
CA$62.77
+49.4%
7.9%CA$70.03CA$51.06CA$35.0511
Jun ’23CA$44.38
CA$62.10
+39.9%
7.8%CA$69.22CA$50.46CA$34.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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