Has Canada Goose Holdings Inc.'s (TSE:GOOS) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Canada Goose Holdings' (TSE:GOOS) stock is up by a considerable 25% over the past three months. As most would know, fundamentals are what usually guide market price movements over the long-term, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Canada Goose Holdings' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Canada Goose Holdings is:

19% = CA$104m ÷ CA$557m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CA$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CA$0.19 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Canada Goose Holdings

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Canada Goose Holdings' Earnings Growth And 19% ROE

To begin with, Canada Goose Holdings seems to have a respectable ROE. On comparing with the average industry ROE of 14% the company's ROE looks pretty remarkable. Needless to say, we are quite surprised to see that Canada Goose Holdings' net income shrunk at a rate of 11% over the past five years. Therefore, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

However, when we compared Canada Goose Holdings' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 20% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Canada Goose Holdings is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Canada Goose Holdings Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Because Canada Goose Holdings doesn't pay any regular dividends, we infer that it is retaining all of its profits, which is rather perplexing when you consider the fact that there is no earnings growth to show for it. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Summary

In total, it does look like Canada Goose Holdings has some positive aspects to its business. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. In addition, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that the company's earnings are expected to continue to shrink. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.