An Intrinsic Calculation For Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (TSE:GOOS) Suggests It's 32% Undervalued

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Canada Goose Holdings fair value estimate is CA$21.86
• Canada Goose Holdings is estimated to be 32% undervalued based on current share price of CA$14.83
• Analyst price target for GOOS is CA$16.79 which is 23% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (TSE:GOOS) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Canada Goose Holdings

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CA$, Millions)	CA$105.7m	CA$111.5m	CA$133.0m	CA$148.8m	CA$162.1m	CA$173.1m	CA$182.4m	CA$190.2m	CA$197.1m	CA$203.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Est @ 11.89%	Est @ 8.90%	Est @ 6.81%	Est @ 5.35%	Est @ 4.32%	Est @ 3.60%	Est @ 3.10%
Present Value (CA$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0%	CA$97.0	CA$93.9	CA$103	CA$105	CA$105	CA$103	CA$99.7	CA$95.4	CA$90.7	CA$85.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CA$979m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CA$203m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (9.0%– 1.9%) = CA$2.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CA$2.9b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)¹⁰= CA$1.2b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CA$2.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$14.8, the company appears quite good value at a 32% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Canada Goose Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.416. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Canada Goose Holdings

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Canada Goose Holdings, we've put together three fundamental elements you should look at:

1. Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Canada Goose Holdings (including 1 which is concerning) .
2. Future Earnings: How does GOOS's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.