There's Reason For Concern Over Linamar Corporation's (TSE:LNR) Massive 31% Price Jump

Linamar Corporation (TSE:LNR) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 31% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 17% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Linamar's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.5x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Canada, where the median P/E ratio is around 15x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Linamar. Read for free now.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Linamar over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing earnings performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for Linamar

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Linamar, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Linamar's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Linamar would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 54%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 22% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Linamar's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Linamar's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Linamar revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Linamar.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.