Stock Analysis

The Linamar (TSE:LNR) Share Price Is Up 151% And Shareholders Are Boasting About It

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TSX:LNR
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When you buy shares in a company, there is always a risk that the price drops to zero. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the Linamar Corporation (TSE:LNR) share price has soared 151% in the last year. Most would be very happy with that, especially in just one year! On top of that, the share price is up 26% in about a quarter. But this could be related to the strong market, which is up 11% in the last three months. Having said that, the longer term returns aren't so impressive, with stock gaining just 16% in three years.

View our latest analysis for Linamar

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over the last twelve months, Linamar actually shrank its EPS by 35%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.

We are skeptical of the suggestion that the 0.8% dividend yield would entice buyers to the stock. Unfortunately Linamar's fell 22% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSX:LNR Earnings and Revenue Growth March 15th 2021

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Linamar, it has a TSR of 154% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Linamar shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 154% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 7%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Linamar (including 1 which is a bit concerning) .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on CA exchanges.

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