Stock Analysis

Is Linamar (TSE:LNR) A Risky Investment?

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TSX:LNR
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Linamar Corporation (TSE:LNR) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

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What Is Linamar's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Linamar had debt of CA$896.9m at the end of March 2021, a reduction from CA$1.88b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CA$671.9m, its net debt is less, at about CA$225.0m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSX:LNR Debt to Equity History August 2nd 2021

How Strong Is Linamar's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Linamar had liabilities of CA$1.67b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CA$1.25b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CA$671.9m in cash and CA$1.17b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$1.09b.

Linamar has a market capitalization of CA$4.83b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Linamar's net debt is only 0.23 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 57.2 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Linamar's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year, but that shouldn't be an issue given the it doesn't have a lot of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Linamar can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Linamar actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

Our View

Happily, Linamar's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. Looking at the bigger picture, we think Linamar's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Linamar (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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