Stock Analysis

Alupar Investimento (BVMF:ALUP11) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet

BOVESPA:ALUP11
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Alupar Investimento S.A. (BVMF:ALUP11) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Alupar Investimento

How Much Debt Does Alupar Investimento Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Alupar Investimento had debt of R$11.6b, up from R$11.0b in one year. However, it also had R$2.72b in cash, and so its net debt is R$8.86b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
BOVESPA:ALUP11 Debt to Equity History February 24th 2024

How Healthy Is Alupar Investimento's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Alupar Investimento had liabilities of R$2.84b due within 12 months and liabilities of R$14.6b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of R$2.72b as well as receivables valued at R$2.51b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling R$12.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's R$9.11b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

While we wouldn't worry about Alupar Investimento's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.7, we think its super-low interest cover of 2.4 times is a sign of high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Worse, Alupar Investimento's EBIT was down 28% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Alupar Investimento's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Alupar Investimento recorded free cash flow of 37% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

To be frank both Alupar Investimento's level of total liabilities and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is not so bad. We should also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like Alupar Investimento commonly do use debt without problems. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Alupar Investimento has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Alupar Investimento you should be aware of.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.