Hidrovias do Brasil S.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Hidrovias do Brasil S.A. (BVMF:HBSA3) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.5% to R$3.84 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at R$0.086, some 26% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at R$651m. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Hidrovias do Brasil from five analysts is for revenues of R$2.44b in 2026. If met, it would imply a sizeable 38% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Hidrovias do Brasil forecast to report a statutory profit of R$0.28 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$2.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.28 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Hidrovias do Brasil

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 5.7% to R$4.35. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Hidrovias do Brasil, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at R$5.70 and the most bearish at R$3.20 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Hidrovias do Brasil's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 29% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 1.7% annually. It seems obvious that as part of the brighter growth outlook, Hidrovias do Brasil is expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Hidrovias do Brasil's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Hidrovias do Brasil going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Hidrovias do Brasil you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.