Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário S.A.

BOVESPA:MELK3 Stock Report

Market Cap: R$752.6m

Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário Valuation

Is MELK3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MELK3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MELK3 (R$3.58) is trading below our estimate of fair value (R$37.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MELK3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MELK3?

Key metric: As MELK3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MELK3. This is calculated by dividing MELK3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MELK3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.6x
EarningsR$84.50m
Market CapR$752.62m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MELK3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MELK3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6x
MTRE3 Mitre Realty Empreendimentos e Participações
9.2x88.2%R$412.5m
MDNE3 Moura Dubeux Engenharia
5.2x11.3%R$1.3b
LAVV3 Lavvi Empreendimentos Imobiliários
5.3x18.7%R$1.7b
HBOR3 Helbor Empreendimentos
4.4x76.9%R$236.2m
MELK3 Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário
8.6x54.0%R$752.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MELK3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MELK3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Real Estate Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MELK3 8.6xIndustry Avg. 8.7xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MELK3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the South American Real Estate industry average (8.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MELK3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MELK3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.6x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MELK3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MELK3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR$3.58
R$6.17
+72.3%
15.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a3
Nov ’25R$3.51
R$6.17
+75.7%
15.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a3
Oct ’25R$3.53
R$6.17
+74.7%
15.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a3
Sep ’25R$3.39
R$6.17
+81.9%
15.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a3
Aug ’25R$3.42
R$6.13
+79.3%
13.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a4
Jul ’25R$3.46
R$6.34
+83.3%
13.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a3
Jun ’25R$3.80
R$6.34
+66.9%
13.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a3
May ’25R$4.30
R$6.34
+47.5%
13.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a3
Apr ’25R$4.87
R$6.34
+30.3%
13.3%R$7.50R$5.50n/a3
Mar ’25R$4.86
R$5.75
+18.3%
30.4%R$7.50R$4.00n/a2
Feb ’25R$4.28
R$5.75
+34.3%
30.4%R$7.50R$4.00n/a2
Jan ’25R$4.80
R$5.75
+19.8%
30.4%R$7.50R$4.00n/a2
Dec ’24R$4.34
R$5.75
+32.5%
30.4%R$7.50R$4.00n/a2
Nov ’24R$4.09
R$5.75
+40.6%
30.4%R$7.50R$4.00R$3.512
Oct ’24R$4.46
R$5.75
+28.9%
30.4%R$7.50R$4.00R$3.532
Sep ’24R$4.34
R$5.75
+32.5%
30.4%R$7.50R$4.00R$3.392
Aug ’24R$4.90
R$4.50
-8.2%
11.1%R$5.00R$4.00R$3.422
Jul ’24R$4.25
R$4.50
+5.9%
11.1%R$5.00R$4.00R$3.462
Jun ’24R$4.15
R$4.50
+8.4%
11.1%R$5.00R$4.00R$3.802
May ’24R$3.47
R$5.33
+53.7%
23.4%R$7.00R$4.00R$4.303
Apr ’24R$3.00
R$5.33
+77.8%
23.4%R$7.00R$4.00R$4.873
Mar ’24R$2.97
R$5.33
+79.6%
23.4%R$7.00R$4.00R$4.863
Feb ’24R$2.96
R$6.00
+102.7%
23.6%R$7.00R$4.00R$4.283
Jan ’24R$3.29
R$6.00
+82.4%
23.6%R$7.00R$4.00R$4.803
Dec ’23R$3.34
R$6.00
+79.6%
23.6%R$7.00R$4.00R$4.343
Nov ’23R$4.18
R$6.00
+43.5%
23.6%R$7.00R$4.00R$4.093

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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