Moura Dubeux Engenharia S.A.

BOVESPA:MDNE3 Stock Report

Market Cap: R$1.3b

Moura Dubeux Engenharia Valuation

Is MDNE3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MDNE3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MDNE3 (R$14.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (R$29.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MDNE3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MDNE3?

Key metric: As MDNE3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MDNE3. This is calculated by dividing MDNE3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MDNE3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.2x
EarningsR$240.16m
Market CapR$1.27b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MDNE3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MDNE3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.9x
LAVV3 Lavvi Empreendimentos Imobiliários
5.3x18.7%R$1.7b
MELK3 Melnick Desenvolvimento Imobiliário
8.6x54.0%R$752.6m
MTRE3 Mitre Realty Empreendimentos e Participações
9.2x88.2%R$412.5m
HBOR3 Helbor Empreendimentos
4.4x76.9%R$236.2m
MDNE3 Moura Dubeux Engenharia
5.2x11.3%R$1.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MDNE3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the peer average (6.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MDNE3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Real Estate Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MDNE3 5.2xIndustry Avg. 8.7xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MDNE3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the South American Real Estate industry average (8.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MDNE3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MDNE3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.2x
Fair PE Ratio7.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MDNE3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MDNE3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR$14.70
R$19.90
+35.4%
6.4%R$21.50R$18.00n/a5
Nov ’25R$15.33
R$19.90
+29.8%
6.4%R$21.50R$18.00n/a5
Oct ’25R$14.43
R$19.50
+35.1%
5.7%R$21.00R$18.00n/a4
Sep ’25R$14.25
R$19.50
+36.8%
5.7%R$21.00R$18.00n/a4
Aug ’25R$14.16
R$18.50
+30.6%
9.7%R$21.00R$16.00n/a4
Jul ’25R$11.49
R$16.67
+45.1%
5.7%R$18.00R$16.00n/a3
Jan ’25R$13.33
R$16.17
+21.3%
1.5%R$16.50R$16.00n/a3
Dec ’24R$12.21
R$16.17
+32.4%
1.5%R$16.50R$16.00n/a3
Nov ’24R$10.40
R$14.83
+42.6%
13.6%R$16.50R$12.00R$15.333
Oct ’24R$10.75
R$13.88
+29.1%
17.4%R$16.50R$11.00R$14.434
Sep ’24R$11.62
R$13.88
+19.4%
17.4%R$16.50R$11.00R$14.254
Aug ’24R$10.93
R$10.25
-6.2%
12.7%R$12.00R$9.00R$14.164
Jul ’24R$9.19
R$10.25
+11.5%
12.7%R$12.00R$9.00R$11.494
Jun ’24R$7.86
R$10.25
+30.4%
12.7%R$12.00R$9.00R$11.004
May ’24R$5.57
R$10.25
+84.0%
12.7%R$12.00R$9.00R$11.594
Apr ’24R$5.00
R$10.25
+105.0%
12.7%R$12.00R$9.00R$13.044
Mar ’24R$4.92
R$10.25
+108.3%
12.7%R$12.00R$9.00R$12.794
Feb ’24R$5.68
R$10.25
+80.5%
12.7%R$12.00R$9.00R$11.514
Jan ’24R$5.81
R$10.88
+87.2%
17.9%R$14.00R$9.00R$13.334
Dec ’23R$5.78
R$10.88
+88.1%
17.9%R$14.00R$9.00R$12.214
Nov ’23R$7.50
R$10.88
+45.0%
17.9%R$14.00R$9.00R$10.404

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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