Earnings Beat: Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A. (BVMF:CXSE3) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.1% to hit R$1.5b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at R$0.38, some 5.3% above whatthe analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Caixa Seguridade Participações after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Caixa Seguridade Participações' 13 analysts is for revenues of R$6.17b in 2026, which would reflect a noticeable 6.6% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 6.7% to R$1.56. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$6.18b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$1.57 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Caixa Seguridade Participações

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at R$17.75. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Caixa Seguridade Participações at R$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$14.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.3% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 26% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Caixa Seguridade Participações is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$17.75, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Caixa Seguridade Participações. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Caixa Seguridade Participações going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.