Stock Analysis

Investors who have held Minerva (BVMF:BEEF3) over the last year have watched its earnings decline along with their investment

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BOVESPA:BEEF3
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The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. For example, the Minerva S.A. (BVMF:BEEF3) share price is down 38% in the last year. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 14%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 24% in three years. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

On a more encouraging note the company has added R$258m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the one-year loss for shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Minerva

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unhappily, Minerva had to report a 53% decline in EPS over the last year. The share price fall of 38% isn't as bad as the reduction in earnings per share. It may have been that the weak EPS was not as bad as some had feared.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
BOVESPA:BEEF3 Earnings Per Share Growth December 2nd 2023

This free interactive report on Minerva's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Minerva, it has a TSR of -34% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Minerva shareholders are down 34% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 14%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 11% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Minerva (including 1 which is significant) .

We will like Minerva better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Brazilian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

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