Ambev S.A. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

It's been a good week for Ambev S.A. (BVMF:ABEV3) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.0% to R$12.71. Revenues of R$21b fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of R$0.30 an impressive 47% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ambev from 18 analysts is for revenues of R$94.7b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 3.5% to R$0.99 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$95.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.99 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Ambev

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of R$13.88, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ambev at R$17.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$10.10. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Ambev's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 8.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ambev.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at R$13.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Ambev going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Ambev .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.