Ultrapar Participações S.A.

BOVESPA:UGPA3 Stock Report

Market Cap: R$31.0b

Ultrapar Participações Valuation

Is UGPA3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UGPA3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UGPA3 (R$28.47) is trading above our estimate of fair value (R$18.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UGPA3 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UGPA3?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

UGPA3 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA7.5x
PEG Ratio-15.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UGPA3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UGPA3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.1x
RAIZ4 Raízen
9.2x9.9%R$36.6b
PRIO3 Prio
7.9x17.9%R$40.9b
RECV3 Petroreconcavo
9.7x34.6%R$6.9b
ENLC EnLink Midstream
29.8x19.8%US$6.0b
UGPA3 Ultrapar Participações
12.7x-0.8%R$31.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UGPA3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the peer average (14.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UGPA3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a0.2%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a0.2%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UGPA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (9.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UGPA3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UGPA3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.7x
Fair PE Ratio7.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UGPA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UGPA3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentR$28.47
R$28.11
-1.3%
23.5%R$37.00R$18.50n/a14
Mar ’25R$29.41
R$27.41
-6.8%
22.8%R$37.00R$18.50n/a14
Feb ’25R$28.46
R$23.51
-17.4%
18.0%R$32.00R$16.60n/a14
Jan ’25R$26.51
R$23.26
-12.2%
18.6%R$32.00R$16.60n/a14
Dec ’24R$25.59
R$22.70
-11.3%
16.1%R$30.00R$16.60n/a14
Nov ’24R$21.21
R$20.46
-3.5%
11.6%R$27.00R$16.60n/a14
Oct ’24R$18.75
R$19.04
+1.6%
9.1%R$22.00R$16.50n/a14
Sep ’24R$18.41
R$18.54
+0.7%
11.7%R$22.00R$14.00n/a14
Aug ’24R$18.98
R$18.39
-3.1%
11.7%R$22.00R$14.00n/a14
Jul ’24R$18.89
R$18.05
-4.4%
14.4%R$23.00R$14.00n/a15
Jun ’24R$17.65
R$17.39
-1.5%
14.3%R$23.00R$14.00n/a15
May ’24R$14.44
R$17.07
+18.2%
13.8%R$23.00R$14.00n/a16
Apr ’24R$13.96
R$17.19
+23.2%
13.0%R$23.00R$14.00n/a16
Mar ’24R$12.99
R$17.28
+33.0%
12.4%R$23.00R$14.00R$29.4117
Feb ’24R$12.88
R$17.92
+39.1%
16.8%R$26.00R$14.00R$28.4616
Jan ’24R$12.61
R$18.04
+43.1%
16.5%R$26.00R$14.00R$26.5116
Dec ’23R$14.01
R$18.04
+28.8%
16.5%R$26.00R$14.00R$25.5916
Nov ’23R$14.00
R$17.76
+26.9%
17.2%R$26.00R$14.00R$21.2116
Oct ’23R$11.73
R$18.17
+54.9%
17.0%R$26.00R$14.00R$18.7516
Sep ’23R$13.63
R$18.31
+34.3%
16.4%R$26.00R$14.00R$18.4117
Aug ’23R$12.90
R$17.66
+36.9%
15.0%R$23.00R$14.00R$18.9814
Jul ’23R$12.14
R$18.89
+55.6%
15.5%R$26.00R$14.00R$18.8914
Jun ’23R$14.12
R$18.88
+33.7%
14.4%R$26.00R$16.00R$17.6515
May ’23R$13.07
R$18.98
+45.2%
14.1%R$26.00R$16.00R$14.4415
Apr ’23R$14.63
R$19.01
+30.0%
14.2%R$26.00R$16.00R$13.9615
Mar ’23R$14.81
R$19.48
+31.5%
15.0%R$26.00R$16.00R$12.9916

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


Discover undervalued companies

Price

7D

1Y

Mkt cap

PS

E.Growth

Analysts Target

Price

7D

1Y

Mkt cap

PS

E.Growth

Analysts Target

Price

7D

1Y

Mkt cap

PS

E.Growth

Analysts Target

Price

7D

1Y

Mkt cap

PS

E.Growth

Analysts Target

Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us.