Ultrapar Participações Valuation
Is UGPA3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of UGPA3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: UGPA3 (R$18.46) is trading above our estimate of fair value (R$14.92)
Significantly Below Fair Value: UGPA3 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UGPA3?
Key metric: As UGPA3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is UGPA3's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 7.7x |
| Earnings | R$2.62b |
| Market Cap | R$21.04b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 6.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 9.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does UGPA3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 10.7x | ||
CSAN3 Cosan | 5.8x | 21.1% | R$13.0b |
PRIO3 Prio | 6.8x | 27.5% | R$33.1b |
RECV3 Petroreconcavo | 8.3x | 21.5% | R$4.9b |
PAGP Plains GP Holdings | 22x | 26.3% | US$4.2b |
UGPA3 Ultrapar Participações | 7.7x | 0.8% | R$21.0b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UGPA3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the peer average (10.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does UGPA3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?
| 27 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UGPA3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is UGPA3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 7.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 5.5x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UGPA3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | R$19.29 | R$27.93 +44.8% | 13.0% | R$33.00 | R$18.80 | n/a | 16 |
| Nov ’25 | R$20.50 | R$27.99 +36.6% | 13.6% | R$33.00 | R$18.80 | n/a | 15 |
| Oct ’25 | R$21.40 | R$27.90 +30.4% | 14.1% | R$33.00 | R$18.80 | n/a | 14 |
| Sep ’25 | R$23.36 | R$27.51 +17.8% | 14.9% | R$33.00 | R$20.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Aug ’25 | R$22.53 | R$27.63 +22.6% | 19.8% | R$37.00 | R$19.50 | n/a | 14 |
| Jul ’25 | R$21.74 | R$27.89 +28.3% | 19.6% | R$37.00 | R$19.50 | n/a | 14 |
| Jun ’25 | R$23.17 | R$27.89 +20.4% | 19.6% | R$37.00 | R$19.50 | n/a | 14 |
| May ’25 | R$25.85 | R$28.43 +10.0% | 23.0% | R$37.00 | R$18.50 | n/a | 14 |
| Apr ’25 | R$28.13 | R$28.29 +0.6% | 23.0% | R$37.00 | R$18.50 | n/a | 14 |
| Mar ’25 | R$29.41 | R$27.41 -6.8% | 22.8% | R$37.00 | R$18.50 | n/a | 14 |
| Feb ’25 | R$28.46 | R$23.51 -17.4% | 18.0% | R$32.00 | R$16.60 | n/a | 14 |
| Jan ’25 | R$26.51 | R$23.26 -12.2% | 18.6% | R$32.00 | R$16.60 | n/a | 14 |
| Dec ’24 | R$25.59 | R$22.70 -11.3% | 16.1% | R$30.00 | R$16.60 | n/a | 14 |
| Nov ’24 | R$21.21 | R$20.46 -3.5% | 11.6% | R$27.00 | R$16.60 | R$20.50 | 14 |
| Oct ’24 | R$18.75 | R$19.04 +1.6% | 9.1% | R$22.00 | R$16.50 | R$21.40 | 14 |
| Sep ’24 | R$18.41 | R$18.54 +0.7% | 11.7% | R$22.00 | R$14.00 | R$23.36 | 14 |
| Aug ’24 | R$18.98 | R$18.39 -3.1% | 11.7% | R$22.00 | R$14.00 | R$22.53 | 14 |
| Jul ’24 | R$18.89 | R$18.05 -4.4% | 14.4% | R$23.00 | R$14.00 | R$21.74 | 15 |
| Jun ’24 | R$17.65 | R$17.39 -1.5% | 14.3% | R$23.00 | R$14.00 | R$23.17 | 15 |
| May ’24 | R$14.44 | R$17.07 +18.2% | 13.8% | R$23.00 | R$14.00 | R$25.85 | 16 |
| Apr ’24 | R$13.96 | R$17.19 +23.2% | 13.0% | R$23.00 | R$14.00 | R$28.13 | 16 |
| Mar ’24 | R$12.99 | R$17.28 +33.0% | 12.4% | R$23.00 | R$14.00 | R$29.41 | 17 |
| Feb ’24 | R$12.88 | R$17.92 +39.1% | 16.8% | R$26.00 | R$14.00 | R$28.46 | 16 |
| Jan ’24 | R$12.61 | R$18.04 +43.1% | 16.5% | R$26.00 | R$14.00 | R$26.51 | 16 |
| Dec ’23 | R$14.01 | R$18.04 +28.8% | 16.5% | R$26.00 | R$14.00 | R$25.59 | 16 |
| Nov ’23 | R$14.00 | R$17.76 +26.9% | 17.2% | R$26.00 | R$14.00 | R$21.21 | 16 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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