Padtec Holding S.A. (BVMF:PDTC3) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 31% Price Plummet

Padtec Holding S.A. (BVMF:PDTC3) shares have had a horrible month, losing 31% after a relatively good period beforehand. Looking back over the past twelve months the stock has been a solid performer regardless, with a gain of 13%.

Even after such a large drop in price, Padtec Holding's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.2x might still make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Brazil, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 10x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Padtec Holding certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Padtec Holding

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Padtec Holding, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Padtec Holding's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 56% last year. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 11% drop in EPS in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Padtec Holding is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Padtec Holding's P/E hasn't come down all the way after its stock plunged. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Padtec Holding revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Padtec Holding that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Padtec Holding. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.