Grupo Mateus S.A. (BVMF:GMAT3) Full-Year Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Grupo Mateus S.A. (BVMF:GMAT3) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to R$6.69 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of R$32b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Grupo Mateus surprised by delivering a statutory profit of R$0.60 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Grupo Mateus

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Grupo Mateus' ten analysts is for revenues of R$38.7b in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 17% to R$0.70. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R$38.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.70 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at R$9.15. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Grupo Mateus at R$10.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at R$7.50. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Grupo Mateus' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 21% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 26% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Grupo Mateus is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grupo Mateus. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Grupo Mateus going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Grupo Mateus' balance sheet, and whether we think Grupo Mateus is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.