Kepler Weber S.A.'s (BVMF:KEPL3) 26% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Kepler Weber S.A. (BVMF:KEPL3) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26% share price drop in the last month. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 28% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Kepler Weber's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Brazil, where the median P/E ratio is around 8x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

For instance, Kepler Weber's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Kepler Weber

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Kepler Weber, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

Kepler Weber's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 18%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 24% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 15% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's curious that Kepler Weber's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What We Can Learn From Kepler Weber's P/E?

Kepler Weber's plummeting stock price has brought its P/E right back to the rest of the market. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Kepler Weber revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Having said that, be aware Kepler Weber is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.