Novavax, Inc.

BUL:NVV1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.3b

Novavax Valuation

Is NVV1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NVV1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NVV1 (€6.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€27.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NVV1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVV1?

Key metric: As NVV1 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NVV1. This is calculated by dividing NVV1's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NVV1's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
SalesUS$885.19m
Market CapUS$1.36b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NVV1's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NVV1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
THQM Tchaikapharma High Quality Medicines AD
32.4xn/aлв1.6b
SFA Sopharma AD
0.5xn/aлв928.1m
PHM Pharma Mar
7.7x26.0%€1.3b
RCUS Arcus Biosciences
5.1x18.5%US$1.3b
NVV1 Novavax
1.5x-10.2%€1.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NVV1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NVV1's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Biotechs Industry?

39 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.8.1x0%
NVV1 Novavax
 1.5x-10.2%US$1.36b
NVV1 1.5xIndustry Avg. 8.1xNo. of Companies38PS0816243240+
39 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.8.1x0%
NVV1 Novavax
 1.5x67.0%US$1.36b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NVV1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (7.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NVV1's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NVV1 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NVV1's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NVV1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
€15.26
0%
39.5%€23.85€8.59n/a6
Nov ’25n/a
€16.42
0%
34.5%€23.95€8.29n/a6
Oct ’25n/a
€16.62
0%
41.5%€28.36€8.23n/a6
Sep ’25€9.93
€16.62
+67.4%
41.5%€28.36€8.23n/a6
Aug ’25n/a
€17.73
0%
45.0%€28.68€7.40n/a6
Jul ’25n/a
€21.30
0%
42.6%€35.50€9.34n/a5
Jun ’25n/a
€19.98
0%
48.9%€35.15€9.25n/a5
May ’25n/a
€14.21
0%
81.2%€35.07€3.69n/a5
Apr ’25n/a
€14.21
0%
81.2%€35.07€3.69n/a5
Mar ’25n/a
€14.21
0%
81.2%€35.07€3.69n/a5
Feb ’25n/a
€17.73
0%
73.3%€34.73€3.66n/a5
Jan ’25n/a
€18.02
0%
71.5%€34.94€4.60n/a5
Dec ’24n/a
€18.02
0%
71.5%€34.94€4.60n/a5
Nov ’24n/a
€18.82
0%
65.0%€34.71€4.57n/a5
Oct ’24€6.98
€18.82
+169.7%
65.0%€34.71€4.57n/a5
Sep ’24n/a
€18.82
0%
65.0%€34.71€4.57€9.935
Aug ’24n/a
€19.64
0%
60.7%€36.60€8.04n/a5
Jul ’24n/a
€21.04
0%
54.0%€37.78€8.29n/a6
Jun ’24n/a
€21.04
0%
54.0%€37.78€8.29n/a6
May ’24n/a
€35.88
0%
95.6%€100.35€9.12n/a6
Apr ’24n/a
€43.92
0%
75.7%€103.17€9.38n/a6
Mar ’24n/a
€43.92
0%
75.7%€103.17€9.38n/a6
Feb ’24n/a
€51.99
0%
62.3%€103.35€12.21n/a6
Jan ’24n/a
€57.43
0%
55.2%€102.73€12.14n/a6
Dec ’23€15.65
€76.69
+390.0%
80.5%€203.09€15.70n/a6
Nov ’23€22.13
€83.62
+277.9%
77.9%€212.82€16.45n/a6

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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