HelloFresh Valuation

Is HFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HFG (€12.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€20.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFG?

Key metric: As HFG is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HFG. This is calculated by dividing HFG's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HFG's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
Sales€7.71b
Market Cap€1.95b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HFG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
SON Sonae SGPS
0.2x4.8%€1.7b
8279 YaokoLtd
0.6x5.8%JP¥371.8b
WMK Weis Markets
0.4xn/aUS$1.9b
LACOMER UBC La Comer. de
0.9x10.7%Mex$36.7b
HFG HelloFresh
0.3x3.2%€1.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HFG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HFG's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HFG 0.3xIndustry Avg. 0.4xNo. of Companies13PS00.40.81.21.62+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HFG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (0.4x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HFG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HFG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HFG's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€12.10
€11.50
-4.9%
30.8%€17.00€4.00n/a15
Dec ’25€11.53
€10.61
-8.0%
30.0%€17.00€4.00n/a15
Nov ’25€10.74
€9.94
-7.5%
28.2%€14.31€4.00n/a14
Oct ’25€9.28
€8.19
-11.7%
29.6%€14.31€4.00n/a14
Sep ’25€7.45
€8.15
+9.5%
28.7%€14.31€4.00n/a15
Aug ’25€5.74
€8.42
+46.8%
35.8%€16.00€4.00n/a15
Jul ’25€4.83
€10.03
+107.6%
62.7%€31.00€5.50n/a15
Jun ’25€5.50
€9.89
+79.9%
62.1%€31.00€5.50n/a16
May ’25€6.39
€9.82
+53.7%
61.0%€31.00€5.50n/a17
Apr ’25€6.57
€10.42
+58.5%
56.4%€31.00€5.00n/a17
Mar ’25€12.18
€23.05
+89.2%
41.1%€45.00€11.00n/a18
Feb ’25€12.12
€23.30
+92.3%
39.8%€45.00€11.00n/a18
Jan ’25€14.31
€24.23
+69.3%
35.1%€45.00€11.00n/a18
Dec ’24€14.10
€24.49
+73.7%
35.4%€45.00€11.00€11.5317
Nov ’24€21.01
€32.57
+55.0%
27.7%€47.00€16.00€10.7415
Oct ’24€28.62
€33.06
+15.5%
25.3%€47.00€17.00€9.2815
Sep ’24€29.50
€32.11
+8.9%
25.2%€47.00€17.00€7.4517
Aug ’24€25.63
€32.11
+25.3%
25.2%€47.00€17.00€5.7417
Jul ’24€22.67
€32.55
+43.6%
27.1%€49.00€17.00€4.8317
Jun ’24€20.95
€33.16
+58.3%
26.4%€49.00€17.00€5.5016
May ’24€24.32
€33.16
+36.3%
26.4%€49.00€17.00€6.3916
Apr ’24€22.14
€30.96
+39.9%
32.7%€49.00€17.00€6.5714
Mar ’24€20.91
€34.54
+65.2%
30.1%€55.00€18.00€12.1814
Feb ’24€21.51
€42.30
+96.7%
40.2%€81.00€18.00€12.1215
Jan ’24€20.64
€44.59
+116.1%
35.3%€81.00€18.00€14.3116
Dec ’23€25.28
€44.34
+75.4%
36.1%€81.00€18.00€14.1016

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


Discover undervalued companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 09:15
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

HelloFresh SE is covered by 34 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Adrian SanchezBanco Santander
Christoph BastBankhaus Lampe KG
Emily JohnsonBarclays