HelloFresh Valuation
Is HFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of HFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: HFG (€10.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€21.49)
Significantly Below Fair Value: HFG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFG?
Key metric: As HFG is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is HFG's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Sales | €7.71b |
| Market Cap | €1.77b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.3x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 20.1x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does HFG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 0.5x | ||
SON Sonae SGPS | 0.2x | 6.0% | €1.8b |
8242 H2O Retailing | 0.4x | 3.0% | JP¥276.4b |
LACOMER UBC La Comer. de | 0.9x | 10.7% | Mex$37.0b |
WMK Weis Markets | 0.4x | n/a | US$1.9b |
HFG HelloFresh | 0.2x | 2.9% | €1.8b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HFG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does HFG's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?
| 9 Companies | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HFG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (0.4x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is HFG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.2x |
| Fair PS Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HFG's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €10.99 | €12.65 +15.1% | 21.4% | €17.00 | €7.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Jan ’26 | €12.25 | €11.50 -6.1% | 30.8% | €17.00 | €4.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Dec ’25 | €11.53 | €10.61 -8.0% | 30.0% | €17.00 | €4.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Nov ’25 | €10.74 | €9.94 -7.5% | 28.2% | €14.31 | €4.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Oct ’25 | €9.28 | €8.19 -11.7% | 29.6% | €14.31 | €4.00 | n/a | 14 |
| Sep ’25 | €7.45 | €8.15 +9.5% | 28.7% | €14.31 | €4.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Aug ’25 | €5.74 | €8.42 +46.8% | 35.8% | €16.00 | €4.00 | n/a | 15 |
| Jul ’25 | €4.83 | €10.03 +107.6% | 62.7% | €31.00 | €5.50 | n/a | 15 |
| Jun ’25 | €5.50 | €9.89 +79.9% | 62.1% | €31.00 | €5.50 | n/a | 16 |
| May ’25 | €6.39 | €9.82 +53.7% | 61.0% | €31.00 | €5.50 | n/a | 17 |
| Apr ’25 | €6.57 | €10.42 +58.5% | 56.4% | €31.00 | €5.00 | n/a | 17 |
| Mar ’25 | €12.18 | €23.05 +89.2% | 41.1% | €45.00 | €11.00 | n/a | 18 |
| Feb ’25 | €12.12 | €23.30 +92.3% | 39.8% | €45.00 | €11.00 | €10.68 | 18 |
| Jan ’25 | €14.31 | €24.23 +69.3% | 35.1% | €45.00 | €11.00 | €12.25 | 18 |
| Dec ’24 | €14.10 | €24.49 +73.7% | 35.4% | €45.00 | €11.00 | €11.53 | 17 |
| Nov ’24 | €21.01 | €32.57 +55.0% | 27.7% | €47.00 | €16.00 | €10.74 | 15 |
| Oct ’24 | €28.62 | €33.06 +15.5% | 25.3% | €47.00 | €17.00 | €9.28 | 15 |
| Sep ’24 | €29.50 | €32.11 +8.9% | 25.2% | €47.00 | €17.00 | €7.45 | 17 |
| Aug ’24 | €25.63 | €32.11 +25.3% | 25.2% | €47.00 | €17.00 | €5.74 | 17 |
| Jul ’24 | €22.67 | €32.55 +43.6% | 27.1% | €49.00 | €17.00 | €4.83 | 17 |
| Jun ’24 | €20.95 | €33.16 +58.3% | 26.4% | €49.00 | €17.00 | €5.50 | 16 |
| May ’24 | €24.32 | €33.16 +36.3% | 26.4% | €49.00 | €17.00 | €6.39 | 16 |
| Apr ’24 | €22.14 | €30.96 +39.9% | 32.7% | €49.00 | €17.00 | €6.57 | 14 |
| Mar ’24 | €20.91 | €34.54 +65.2% | 30.1% | €55.00 | €18.00 | €12.18 | 14 |
| Feb ’24 | €21.51 | €42.30 +96.7% | 40.2% | €81.00 | €18.00 | €12.12 | 15 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2025/02/06 19:14 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2025/02/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2024/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2023/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
HelloFresh SE is covered by 32 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Adrian Sanchez | Banco Santander |
| Andrew Ross | Barclays |
| Alvira Rao | Barclays |