Stock Analysis

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Melexis NV (EBR:MELE)

ENXTBR:MELE
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Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Melexis is €73.80 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • With €86.70 share price, Melexis appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
  • The €92.50 analyst price target for MELE is 25% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Melexis NV (EBR:MELE) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Melexis

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (€, Millions) €146.0m €169.9m €221.6m €250.8m €275.0m €294.7m €310.7m €323.8m €334.7m €343.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Est @ 13.20% Est @ 9.65% Est @ 7.17% Est @ 5.43% Est @ 4.21% Est @ 3.36% Est @ 2.76%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 10% €132 €140 €165 €170 €169 €164 €157 €148 €139 €129

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €1.5b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €344m× (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (10%– 1.4%) = €3.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €3.9b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= €1.5b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €3.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €86.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
ENXTBR:MELE Discounted Cash Flow June 2nd 2023

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Melexis as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.279. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Melexis

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Currently debt free.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.
  • Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Belgian market.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Belgian market.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Melexis, we've compiled three fundamental factors you should look at:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Melexis you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does MELE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ENXTBR every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Melexis is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.