Stock Analysis

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Melexis NV (EBR:MELE)

ENXTBR:MELE
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Key Insights

  • Melexis' estimated fair value is €88.88 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • With €72.30 share price, Melexis appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
  • The €94.02 analyst price target for MELE is 5.8% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Melexis NV (EBR:MELE) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Melexis

The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions) €166.1m €206.2m €235.7m €260.3m €280.5m €297.0m €310.5m €321.8m €331.4m €339.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x4 Est @ 14.31% Est @ 10.46% Est @ 7.76% Est @ 5.87% Est @ 4.55% Est @ 3.63% Est @ 2.98% Est @ 2.53%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0% €152 €173 €182 €184 €182 €177 €169 €161 €152 €143

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €1.7b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €340m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (9.0%– 1.5%) = €4.6b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €4.6b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)10= €1.9b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €3.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €72.3, the company appears about fair value at a 19% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
ENXTBR:MELE Discounted Cash Flow November 3rd 2023

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Melexis as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.282. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Melexis

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Semiconductor industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Belgian market.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Paying a dividend but company has no free cash flows.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Belgian market.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Melexis, we've compiled three important elements you should look at:

  1. Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for Melexis (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to consider before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does MELE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ENXTBR every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Melexis is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.