Air New Zealand Limited

ASX:AIZ Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$1.6b

Air New Zealand Valuation

Is AIZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AIZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AIZ (A$0.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AIZ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AIZ?

Key metric: As AIZ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AIZ. This is calculated by dividing AIZ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AIZ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.3x
EarningsNZ$146.00m
Market CapNZ$1.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AIZ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AIZ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.3x
AQZ Alliance Aviation Services
6.9x12.9%AU$418.0m
QAN Qantas Airways
10.6x9.8%AU$13.3b
REX Regional Express Holdings
2.3xn/aAU$64.5m
DBI Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure
21.3x6.5%AU$1.6b
AIZ Air New Zealand
12.3x23.9%AU$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AIZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x) compared to the peer average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AIZ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AIZ 12.3xIndustry Avg. 10.4xNo. of Companies10PE0816243240+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AIZ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AIZ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AIZ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.3x
Fair PE Ratio19.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AIZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AIZ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.47
AU$0.57
+19.0%
19.2%AU$0.74AU$0.44n/a5
Nov ’25AU$0.47
AU$0.57
+19.0%
19.2%AU$0.74AU$0.44n/a5
Oct ’25AU$0.48
AU$0.57
+16.5%
19.2%AU$0.74AU$0.44n/a5
Sep ’25AU$0.51
AU$0.57
+11.9%
18.8%AU$0.74AU$0.44n/a5
Aug ’25AU$0.54
AU$0.57
+5.6%
20.6%AU$0.73AU$0.44n/a5
Jul ’25AU$0.48
AU$0.58
+20.8%
19.3%AU$0.73AU$0.44n/a5
Jun ’25AU$0.48
AU$0.58
+20.8%
19.3%AU$0.73AU$0.44n/a5
May ’25AU$0.49
AU$0.58
+17.1%
19.3%AU$0.73AU$0.44n/a5
Apr ’25AU$0.56
AU$0.61
+9.1%
18.5%AU$0.75AU$0.47n/a5
Mar ’25AU$0.56
AU$0.61
+8.1%
18.5%AU$0.75AU$0.47n/a5
Feb ’25AU$0.60
AU$0.67
+11.7%
19.7%AU$0.84AU$0.49n/a6
Jan ’25AU$0.58
AU$0.68
+15.9%
19.5%AU$0.83AU$0.48n/a6
Dec ’24AU$0.61
AU$0.70
+15.0%
13.0%AU$0.81AU$0.56n/a6
Nov ’24AU$0.61
AU$0.72
+16.3%
9.6%AU$0.81AU$0.61AU$0.476
Oct ’24AU$0.68
AU$0.79
+15.7%
11.6%AU$0.90AU$0.68AU$0.486
Sep ’24AU$0.76
AU$0.79
+4.2%
11.6%AU$0.90AU$0.68AU$0.516
Aug ’24AU$0.72
AU$0.79
+10.4%
9.1%AU$0.89AU$0.68AU$0.546
Jul ’24AU$0.71
AU$0.78
+9.5%
9.8%AU$0.88AU$0.65AU$0.486
Jun ’24AU$0.71
AU$0.79
+10.1%
9.7%AU$0.89AU$0.66AU$0.486
May ’24AU$0.70
AU$0.79
+12.4%
9.7%AU$0.89AU$0.66AU$0.496
Apr ’24AU$0.72
AU$0.79
+9.9%
9.7%AU$0.90AU$0.67AU$0.566
Mar ’24AU$0.71
AU$0.79
+10.2%
9.2%AU$0.89AU$0.66AU$0.566
Feb ’24AU$0.72
AU$0.77
+6.7%
10.2%AU$0.91AU$0.66AU$0.606
Jan ’24AU$0.69
AU$0.77
+11.3%
10.2%AU$0.91AU$0.66AU$0.586
Dec ’23AU$0.71
AU$0.69
-3.2%
7.2%AU$0.77AU$0.64AU$0.616
Nov ’23AU$0.72
AU$0.66
-8.1%
7.5%AU$0.74AU$0.61AU$0.616

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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