TPG Telecom Limited

CHIA:TPG Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$8.2b

TPG Telecom Valuation

Is TPG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TPG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TPG (A$4.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$21.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TPG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TPG?

Key metric: As TPG is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for TPG. This is calculated by dividing TPG's market cap by their current revenue.
What is TPG's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
SalesAU$5.53b
Market CapAU$8.16b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does TPG's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for TPG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.7x
TLS Telstra Group
2x2.3%AU$44.6b
TUA Tuas
18.4x17.0%AU$2.5b
TIT Telecom Italia
0.3x-1.7%€5.2b
TM Telekom Malaysia Berhad
2x2.7%RM 24.5b
TPG TPG Telecom
1.5x2.4%AU$8.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: TPG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (5.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does TPG's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Telecom Industry?

32 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TPG 1.5xIndustry Avg. 1.4xNo. of Companies45PS01.22.43.64.86+
32 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: TPG is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the Global Telecom industry average (1.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TPG's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TPG PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ratio1.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: TPG is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TPG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.39
AU$5.17
+17.8%
10.4%AU$6.40AU$4.40n/a12
Nov ’25AU$4.49
AU$5.17
+15.2%
10.4%AU$6.40AU$4.40n/a12
Oct ’25AU$4.90
AU$5.22
+6.7%
9.2%AU$6.40AU$4.40n/a13
Sep ’25AU$4.95
AU$5.20
+5.1%
10.0%AU$6.60AU$4.40n/a13
Aug ’25AU$4.67
AU$5.10
+9.2%
10.6%AU$6.60AU$4.30n/a13
Jul ’25AU$4.58
AU$5.16
+12.7%
9.7%AU$6.60AU$4.30n/a13
Jun ’25AU$4.64
AU$5.16
+11.1%
9.7%AU$6.60AU$4.30n/a13
May ’25AU$4.50
AU$5.21
+15.7%
9.5%AU$6.60AU$4.30n/a13
Apr ’25AU$4.50
AU$5.27
+17.0%
10.1%AU$6.60AU$4.30n/a13
Mar ’25AU$4.72
AU$5.27
+11.6%
10.1%AU$6.60AU$4.30n/a13
Feb ’25AU$5.22
AU$5.55
+6.3%
13.0%AU$7.40AU$4.40n/a13
Jan ’25AU$5.17
AU$5.50
+6.4%
13.7%AU$7.40AU$4.40n/a12
Dec ’24AU$4.70
AU$5.59
+19.0%
14.0%AU$7.40AU$4.40n/a12
Nov ’24AU$5.14
AU$5.97
+16.2%
9.1%AU$7.40AU$5.25AU$4.4911
Oct ’24AU$5.46
AU$6.00
+9.9%
8.6%AU$7.40AU$5.55AU$4.9011
Sep ’24AU$5.58
AU$6.00
+7.7%
8.6%AU$7.40AU$5.55AU$4.9511
Aug ’24AU$5.62
AU$5.87
+4.4%
9.1%AU$7.40AU$5.46AU$4.6712
Jul ’24AU$4.87
AU$5.71
+17.3%
10.7%AU$7.40AU$5.00AU$4.5812
Jun ’24AU$5.54
AU$5.82
+5.1%
12.5%AU$7.40AU$5.00AU$4.6412
May ’24AU$5.52
AU$6.00
+8.8%
14.7%AU$7.70AU$5.00AU$4.5012
Apr ’24AU$4.89
AU$6.00
+22.7%
14.2%AU$7.70AU$5.00AU$4.5013
Mar ’24AU$4.99
AU$6.11
+22.3%
13.1%AU$7.70AU$5.20AU$4.7213
Feb ’24AU$4.88
AU$6.26
+28.2%
13.6%AU$7.70AU$5.20AU$5.2213
Jan ’24AU$4.89
AU$6.36
+30.1%
12.3%AU$7.70AU$5.20AU$5.1713
Dec ’23AU$4.95
AU$6.48
+30.9%
12.2%AU$7.70AU$5.20AU$4.7013
Nov ’23AU$4.90
AU$6.48
+32.4%
12.2%AU$7.70AU$5.20AU$5.1413

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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