AVA Risk Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of AVA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AVA (A$0.13) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$0.08)

Is AVA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AVA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AVA (A$0.13) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$0.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVA?

Key metric: As AVA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AVA. This is calculated by dividing AVA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AVA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	1.2x
Sales	AU$30.15m
Market Cap	AU$36.27m

AVA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-24.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AVA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AVA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6x
ELS Elsight	18.6x	n/a	AU$60.6m
SMN Structural Monitoring Systems	2.5x	12.0%	AU$69.1m
TZL TZ	1.3x	n/a	AU$18.1m
RKT RocketDNA	1.6x	n/a	AU$10.1m
AVA AVA Risk Group	1.2x	25.5%	AU$36.3m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AVA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the peer average (6.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AVA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Electronic Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
DDR Dicker Data	0.7x	15.0%	US$981.70m
AMO Ambertech	0.2x	n/a	US$9.30m
HIL Hills	0.3x	n/a	US$7.88m
CLT Cellnet Group	0.09x	n/a	US$4.07m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AVA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the Global Electronic industry average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1.2x
Fair PS Ratio	2.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AVA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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