Pinning Down Rubicon Water Limited's (ASX:RWL) P/S Is Difficult Right Now

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 1.6x in the Electronic industry in Australia, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Rubicon Water Limited's (ASX:RWL) P/S ratio of 1.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Rubicon Water

What Does Rubicon Water's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that Rubicon Water's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Rubicon Water's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Rubicon Water's Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Rubicon Water's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 15% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 15% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 16% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Rubicon Water's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Rubicon Water trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Rubicon Water (at least 1 which is significant), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.