We're Not Very Worried About BirdDog Technology's (ASX:BDT) Cash Burn Rate

Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.

So should BirdDog Technology (ASX:BDT) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? For the purpose of this article, we'll define cash burn as the amount of cash the company is spending each year to fund its growth (also called its negative free cash flow). The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

See our latest analysis for BirdDog Technology

When Might BirdDog Technology Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. When BirdDog Technology last reported its balance sheet in June 2022, it had zero debt and cash worth AU$23m. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through AU$11m. Therefore, from June 2022 it had 2.0 years of cash runway. Importantly, though, the one analyst we see covering the stock thinks that BirdDog Technology will reach cashflow breakeven before then. If that happens, then the length of its cash runway, today, would become a moot point. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

How Well Is BirdDog Technology Growing?

Some investors might find it troubling that BirdDog Technology is actually increasing its cash burn, which is up 47% in the last year. In light of that, the flat year on year operating leverage is a bit off-putting. Considering both these metrics, we're a little concerned about how the company is developing. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

Can BirdDog Technology Raise More Cash Easily?

While BirdDog Technology seems to be in a fairly good position, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Companies can raise capital through either debt or equity. Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Since it has a market capitalisation of AU$33m, BirdDog Technology's AU$11m in cash burn equates to about 35% of its market value. That's not insignificant, and if the company had to sell enough shares to fund another year's growth at the current share price, you'd likely witness fairly costly dilution.

So, Should We Worry About BirdDog Technology's Cash Burn?

As you can probably tell by now, we're not too worried about BirdDog Technology's cash burn. In particular, we think its cash runway stands out as evidence that the company is well on top of its spending. Although its cash burn relative to its market cap does give us reason for pause, the other metrics we discussed in this article form a positive picture overall. It's clearly very positive to see that at least one analyst is forecasting the company will break even fairly soon. After taking into account the various metrics mentioned in this report, we're pretty comfortable with how the company is spending its cash, as it seems on track to meet its needs over the medium term. On another note, we conducted an in-depth investigation of the company, and identified 2 warning signs for BirdDog Technology (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course BirdDog Technology may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.