Vista Group International Limited

CHIA:VGL Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$643.1m

Vista Group International Valuation

Is VGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VGL (A$2.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$3.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VGL?

Key metric: As VGL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for VGL. This is calculated by dividing VGL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is VGL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio5x
SalesNZ$142.90m
Market CapNZ$715.41m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does VGL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for VGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.2x
RUL RPMGlobal Holdings
7x10.4%AU$704.4m
FCL FINEOS Corporation Holdings
3.4x8.5%AU$661.4m
IFM Infomedia
3.5x6.8%AU$498.4m
BVS Bravura Solutions
2.7x2.0%AU$685.9m
VGL Vista Group International
5x12.5%AU$715.4m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: VGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the peer average (4.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does VGL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Software Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ADA Adacel Technologies
0.6x10.4%US$19.11m
MOQ MOQ
0.3xn/aUS$15.57m
DUB Dubber
0.5xn/aUS$12.05m
NOV Novatti Group
0.3x9.4%US$8.72m
VGL 5.0xIndustry Avg. 3.1xNo. of Companies20PS02.85.68.411.214+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: VGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the Australian Software industry average (3.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VGL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VGL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio5x
Fair PS Ratio4.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: VGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$2.68
AU$2.48
-7.3%
14.7%AU$3.03AU$2.02n/a5
Nov ’25AU$2.55
AU$2.48
-2.6%
14.7%AU$3.03AU$2.02n/a5
Oct ’25AU$2.41
AU$2.48
+3.0%
14.7%AU$3.03AU$2.02n/a5
Sep ’25AU$2.74
AU$2.48
-9.4%
14.7%AU$3.03AU$2.02n/a5
Aug ’25AU$2.21
AU$2.04
-7.5%
10.1%AU$2.44AU$1.90n/a5
Jul ’25AU$2.00
AU$2.04
+2.2%
10.1%AU$2.44AU$1.90n/a5
Jun ’25AU$2.05
AU$1.93
-5.6%
14.3%AU$2.40AU$1.55n/a5
May ’25AU$1.65
AU$1.93
+17.6%
14.3%AU$2.40AU$1.55n/a5
Apr ’25AU$1.83
AU$1.85
+1.1%
9.2%AU$2.06AU$1.59n/a4
Mar ’25AU$1.51
AU$1.85
+22.5%
9.2%AU$2.06AU$1.59n/a4
Feb ’25AU$1.49
AU$1.71
+15.4%
12.9%AU$1.87AU$1.40n/a3
Jan ’25AU$1.53
AU$1.71
+12.0%
12.9%AU$1.87AU$1.40n/a3
Dec ’24AU$1.21
AU$1.71
+42.2%
12.9%AU$1.87AU$1.40n/a3
Nov ’24AU$1.18
AU$1.71
+45.2%
12.9%AU$1.87AU$1.40AU$2.553
Oct ’24AU$1.34
AU$1.71
+28.2%
10.9%AU$1.84AU$1.45AU$2.413
Sep ’24AU$1.45
AU$1.71
+18.0%
10.9%AU$1.84AU$1.45AU$2.743
Aug ’24AU$1.74
AU$1.71
-2.0%
10.4%AU$1.85AU$1.46AU$2.213
Jul ’24AU$1.59
AU$1.67
+5.4%
9.3%AU$1.80AU$1.45AU$2.003
Jun ’24AU$1.26
AU$1.67
+32.6%
9.3%AU$1.80AU$1.45AU$2.053
May ’24AU$1.16
AU$1.67
+44.7%
9.3%AU$1.80AU$1.45AU$1.653
Apr ’24AU$1.28
AU$1.67
+30.6%
9.3%AU$1.80AU$1.45AU$1.833
Mar ’24AU$1.26
AU$1.67
+32.6%
9.3%AU$1.80AU$1.45AU$1.513
Feb ’24AU$1.33
AU$1.72
+29.5%
1.2%AU$1.75AU$1.71AU$1.493
Jan ’24AU$1.39
AU$1.72
+24.3%
1.2%AU$1.75AU$1.71AU$1.533
Dec ’23AU$1.40
AU$1.72
+23.0%
1.2%AU$1.75AU$1.71AU$1.213
Nov ’23AU$1.37
AU$1.72
+26.2%
1.2%AU$1.75AU$1.71AU$1.183

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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