Nuix Valuation

Is NXL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NXL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NXL (A$6.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NXL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NXL?

Key metric: As NXL is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NXL. This is calculated by dividing NXL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NXL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio9.2x
SalesAU$220.62m
Market CapAU$2.03b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NXL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NXL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.3x
OCL Objective
14x8.6%AU$1.6b
IRE Iress
2.7x1.9%AU$1.7b
SDR SiteMinder
9.5x18.8%AU$1.8b
HSN Hansen Technologies
3.1x5.5%AU$1.1b
NXL Nuix
9.2x15.7%AU$2.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NXL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.2x) compared to the peer average (7.3x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NXL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Software Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ADA Adacel Technologies
0.6x10.4%US$18.66m
MOQ MOQ
0.3xn/aUS$15.57m
DUB Dubber
0.5xn/aUS$12.07m
NOV Novatti Group
0.3x9.4%US$8.48m
NXL 9.2xIndustry Avg. 2.9xNo. of Companies19PS02.85.68.411.214+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NXL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.2x) compared to the Australian Software industry average (2.9x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NXL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NXL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio9.2x
Fair PS Ratio12.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NXL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (9.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NXL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$6.15
AU$5.98
-2.8%
11.0%AU$7.00AU$5.31n/a4
Nov ’25AU$7.55
AU$6.03
-20.1%
12.2%AU$7.20AU$5.31n/a4
Oct ’25AU$6.43
AU$5.53
-14.0%
6.3%AU$6.10AU$5.20n/a4
Sep ’25AU$4.75
AU$5.53
+16.4%
6.3%AU$6.10AU$5.20n/a4
Aug ’25AU$3.41
AU$3.27
-4.1%
14.9%AU$3.95AU$2.85n/a3
Jul ’25AU$3.01
AU$3.27
+8.5%
14.9%AU$3.95AU$2.85n/a3
Jun ’25AU$3.07
AU$3.27
+6.4%
14.9%AU$3.95AU$2.85n/a3
May ’25AU$2.03
AU$2.82
+39.1%
18.8%AU$3.57AU$2.40n/a3
Apr ’25AU$2.23
AU$2.45
+9.9%
2.0%AU$2.50AU$2.40n/a2
Mar ’25AU$2.00
AU$2.45
+22.5%
2.0%AU$2.50AU$2.40n/a2
Feb ’25AU$1.54
AU$1.73
+12.0%
27.5%AU$2.20AU$1.25n/a2
Jan ’25AU$1.91
AU$1.73
-9.4%
27.5%AU$2.20AU$1.25n/a2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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