Technology One (ASX:TNE) Is Down 12.0% After Record Profit and Dividend but No FY26 Guidance - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• Technology One Limited recently reported record financial results for the year ending September 30, 2025, announcing an increased final dividend of A$0.20 per share, a special dividend of A$0.10 per share, and strong revenue and profit growth.
• Despite these positive outcomes and rapid progress in international markets, investor sentiment shifted following a slight miss in annual recurring revenue growth targets and an absence of forward guidance for FY26.
• We’ll examine how Technology One’s record profit and dividend announcement, paired with cautious future outlook, influences its investment narrative and expectations.

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Technology One Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Technology One shareholder right now is to believe in the company's ability to deliver on ambitious targets for annual recurring revenue, continued SaaS+ platform adoption, and success in international markets, particularly the UK. The latest record profit announcement confirms solid execution, but a slight shortfall in ARR growth and a lack of FY26 guidance have put the key near-term catalyst, confidence in recurring revenue momentum, under a cloud, while highlighting the market’s sensitivity to even minor hiccups in execution.

Among recent announcements, the increase of the final dividend by 15% to A$0.20 per share and the special dividend of A$0.10 stand out, reflecting robust cash flow and management's confidence in ongoing profitability. However, the significance of these returns to shareholders is now contextualized by market concerns over the pace and predictability of future ARR growth, a core factor in justifying premium valuation and supporting long-term expansion.

Yet, investors should also be mindful that, despite this track record of growth and new milestone targets, questions linger over Technology One’s ability to sustain ARR growth given intensifying competition and evolving sector demands...

Read the full narrative on Technology One (it's free!)

Technology One's narrative projects A$841.0 million revenue and A$224.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 15.1% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of A$91.2 million from A$133.0 million.

Uncover how Technology One's forecasts yield a A$35.58 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from A$19.31 to A$37.03 per share, showing how views of Technology One's potential can differ widely. As you weigh these opinions, remember that ongoing international expansion and SaaS+ adoption are central to both opportunities and risks for future growth.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Technology One - why the stock might be worth as much as 21% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Technology One Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Technology One research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Technology One research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Technology One's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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