Orcoda Limited's (ASX:ODA) 30% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Orcoda Limited (ASX:ODA) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 30% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 55% share price decline.

Even after such a large drop in price, Orcoda's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.3x might still make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Australia, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Orcoda certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Orcoda

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Orcoda, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Orcoda?

Orcoda's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 119%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 53% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's alarming that Orcoda's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Orcoda's P/E

Despite the recent share price weakness, Orcoda's P/E remains higher than most other companies. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Orcoda currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Orcoda you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.