It is doubtless a positive to see that the IXUP Limited (ASX:IXU) share price has gained some 329% in the last three months.
See our latest analysis for IXUP
IXUP recorded just AU$88,500 in revenue over the last twelve months, which isn't really enough for us to consider it to have a proven product. You have to wonder why venture capitalists aren't funding it. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). Investors will be hoping that IXUP can make progress and gain better traction for the business, before it runs low on cash.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There was already a significant chance that they would need more money for business development, and indeed they recently put themselves at the mercy of capital markets and raised equity. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized).
IXUP only just had cash in excess of all liabilities when it last reported. So it's prudent that the management team has already moved to replenish reserves through the recent capital raising event. With that in mind, you can imagine there may be other factors that caused the share price to drop 11% in the last year. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how IXUP's cash levels have changed over time.
In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between IXUP's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. IXUP hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 35% exceeds its share price return of -11%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.
A Different Perspective
IXUP shareholders should be happy with the total gain of 35% over the last twelve months. A substantial portion of that gain has come in the last three months, with the stock up 329% in that time. This suggests the company is continuing to win over new investors. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for IXUP (of which 3 are significant!) you should know about.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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