Harvey Norman Holdings Limited

CHIA:HVN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$6.0b

Harvey Norman Holdings Valuation

Is HVN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HVN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HVN (A$4.81) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$7.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HVN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HVN?

Key metric: As HVN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HVN. This is calculated by dividing HVN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HVN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.9x
EarningsAU$352.45m
Market CapAU$5.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HVN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HVN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.2x
MYR Myer Holdings
19.9x2.5%AU$858.0m
WES Wesfarmers
32x8.2%AU$81.3b
TRS Reject Shop
23x34.6%AU$111.1m
PMV Premier Investments
21.8x4.4%AU$5.4b
HVN Harvey Norman Holdings
16.9x9.1%AU$6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the peer average (24x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HVN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HVN 16.9xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies20PE01632486480+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (20.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HVN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HVN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.9x
Fair PE Ratio20.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HVN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HVN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$4.92
AU$4.85
-1.4%
12.9%AU$5.80AU$4.00n/a13
Nov ’25AU$4.51
AU$4.87
+7.9%
12.1%AU$5.80AU$4.00n/a13
Oct ’25AU$4.91
AU$4.81
-1.8%
11.6%AU$5.80AU$3.90n/a14
Sep ’25AU$4.58
AU$4.81
+5.0%
11.8%AU$5.50AU$3.90n/a13
Aug ’25AU$4.82
AU$4.75
-1.5%
11.8%AU$5.60AU$4.00n/a13
Jul ’25AU$4.17
AU$4.67
+11.9%
10.8%AU$5.50AU$4.00n/a13
Jun ’25AU$4.46
AU$4.71
+5.5%
9.9%AU$5.50AU$4.00n/a13
May ’25AU$4.47
AU$4.69
+4.9%
9.6%AU$5.50AU$4.00n/a13
Apr ’25AU$5.15
AU$4.69
-8.9%
9.6%AU$5.50AU$4.00n/a13
Mar ’25AU$4.99
AU$4.68
-6.2%
10.5%AU$5.50AU$3.90n/a12
Feb ’25AU$4.38
AU$3.92
-10.6%
15.0%AU$5.00AU$3.15n/a12
Jan ’25AU$4.19
AU$3.65
-12.8%
10.4%AU$4.60AU$3.15n/a12
Dec ’24AU$3.78
AU$3.65
-3.4%
10.4%AU$4.60AU$3.15n/a12
Nov ’24AU$3.58
AU$3.63
+1.3%
10.7%AU$4.60AU$3.15AU$4.5112
Oct ’24AU$3.88
AU$3.90
+0.6%
11.9%AU$5.02AU$3.39AU$4.9113
Sep ’24AU$4.11
AU$3.94
-4.2%
13.9%AU$5.26AU$3.39AU$4.5814
Aug ’24AU$3.80
AU$3.76
-1.1%
16.5%AU$5.26AU$3.10AU$4.8214
Jul ’24AU$3.49
AU$3.82
+9.5%
16.2%AU$5.26AU$3.10AU$4.1714
Jun ’24AU$3.37
AU$4.07
+20.8%
14.4%AU$5.26AU$3.20AU$4.4613
May ’24AU$3.64
AU$4.07
+11.9%
14.4%AU$5.26AU$3.20AU$4.4713
Apr ’24AU$3.59
AU$3.97
+10.6%
13.1%AU$5.26AU$3.20AU$5.1513
Mar ’24AU$3.80
AU$4.07
+7.2%
14.0%AU$5.26AU$3.20AU$4.9914
Feb ’24AU$4.39
AU$4.43
+0.9%
11.0%AU$5.40AU$3.50AU$4.3814
Jan ’24AU$4.14
AU$4.40
+6.3%
10.6%AU$5.40AU$3.50AU$4.1914
Dec ’23AU$4.33
AU$4.50
+3.9%
10.6%AU$5.76AU$3.85AU$3.7813
Nov ’23AU$4.23
AU$4.48
+5.9%
11.5%AU$5.82AU$3.60AU$3.5813

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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