Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Super Retail Group Limited (ASX:SUL)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Super Retail Group's (ASX:SUL) recent performance, when its stock has declined 17% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. Specifically, we decided to study Super Retail Group's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Super Retail Group

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Super Retail Group is:

19% = AU$262m ÷ AU$1.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each A$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made A$0.19 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Super Retail Group's Earnings Growth And 19% ROE

To start with, Super Retail Group's ROE looks acceptable. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 17%. This certainly adds some context to Super Retail Group's moderate 17% net income growth seen over the past five years.

Next, on comparing Super Retail Group's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 18% over the last few years.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. What is SUL worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether SUL is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Super Retail Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Super Retail Group has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 66%, meaning that it is left with only 34% to reinvest into its business. This implies that the company has been able to achieve decent earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.

Additionally, Super Retail Group has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 69%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Super Retail Group's future ROE will be 17% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that Super Retail Group's performance has been quite good. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.