Stock Analysis

Is Now The Time To Put Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) On Your Watchlist?

ASX:NCK
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For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to investors, even if it completely lacks a track record of revenue and profit. Unfortunately, high risk investments often have little probability of ever paying off, and many investors pay a price to learn their lesson.

So if you're like me, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Nick Scali (ASX:NCK). Now, I'm not saying that the stock is necessarily undervalued today; but I can't shake an appreciation for the profitability of the business itself. Loss-making companies are always racing against time to reach financial sustainability, but time is often a friend of the profitable company, especially if it is growing.

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How Fast Is Nick Scali Growing?

As one of my mentors once told me, share price follows earnings per share (EPS). It's no surprise, then, that I like to invest in companies with EPS growth. We can see that in the last three years Nick Scali grew its EPS by 15% per year. That growth rate is fairly good, assuming the company can keep it up.

I like to take a look at earnings before interest and (EBIT) tax margins, as well as revenue growth, to get another take on the quality of the company's growth. Nick Scali shareholders can take confidence from the fact that EBIT margins are up from 21% to 30%, and revenue is growing. That's great to see, on both counts.

You can take a look at the company's revenue and earnings growth trend, in the chart below. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
ASX:NCK Earnings and Revenue History February 10th 2021

Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of Nick Scali's future profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting.

Are Nick Scali Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Like standing at the lookout, surveying the horizon at sunrise, insider buying, for some investors, sparks joy. Because oftentimes, the purchase of stock is a sign that the buyer views it as undervalued. However, small purchases are not always indicative of conviction, and insiders don't always get it right.

The good news for Nick Scali shareholders is that no insiders reported selling shares in the last year. With that in mind, it's heartening that William Koeck, the Independent Non-Executive Director of the company, paid AU$49k for shares at around AU$8.36 each.

I do like that insiders have been buying shares in Nick Scali, but there is more evidence of shareholder friendly management. Specifically, the CEO is paid quite reasonably for a company of this size. For companies with market capitalizations between AU$518m and AU$2.1b, like Nick Scali, the median CEO pay is around AU$1.2m.

Nick Scali offered total compensation worth AU$726k to its CEO in the year to . That comes in below the average for similar sized companies, and seems pretty reasonable to me. CEO compensation is hardly the most important aspect of a company to consider, but when its reasonable that does give me a little more confidence that leadership are looking out for shareholder interests. It can also be a sign of good governance, more generally.

Should You Add Nick Scali To Your Watchlist?

As I already mentioned, Nick Scali is a growing business, which is what I like to see. Like chocolate chips in vanilla ice cream, the insider buying, and modest CEO pay, make it better. If that doesn't automatically earn it a spot on your watchlist then I'd posit it warrants a closer look at the very least. However, before you get too excited we've discovered 3 warning signs for Nick Scali (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. So if you like the sound of Nick Scali, you'll probably love this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

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Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About ASX:NCK

Nick Scali

Engages in sourcing and retailing of household furniture and related accessories in Australia, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand.

Excellent balance sheet established dividend payer.

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