Michael Hill International Limited

ASX:MHJ Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$269.2m

Michael Hill International Valuation

Is MHJ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MHJ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MHJ (A$0.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$2.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MHJ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MHJ?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MHJ key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA22.5x
PEG Ratio0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MHJ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MHJ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.9x
BBN Baby Bunting Group
28.7x36.2%AU$282.3m
SSG Shaver Shop Group
9.5x5.4%AU$148.0m
DSK Dusk Group
7.6x23.6%AU$48.3m
SUL Super Retail Group
13.9x1.5%AU$3.6b
MHJ Michael Hill International
20.7x24.4%AU$269.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MHJ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the peer average (14.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MHJ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Specialty Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a7.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a7.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MHJ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the Australian Specialty Retail industry average (15.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MHJ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MHJ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.7x
Fair PE Ratio18.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MHJ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MHJ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.70
AU$1.02
+46.2%
7.4%AU$1.10AU$0.92n/a3
Mar ’25AU$0.72
AU$1.02
+41.1%
7.4%AU$1.10AU$0.92n/a3
Feb ’25AU$0.83
AU$1.05
+26.9%
13.5%AU$1.20AU$0.86n/a3
Jan ’25AU$0.91
AU$1.24
+37.0%
24.3%AU$1.60AU$0.79n/a4
Dec ’24AU$0.81
AU$1.24
+53.1%
24.3%AU$1.60AU$0.79n/a4
Nov ’24AU$0.83
AU$1.27
+53.3%
20.0%AU$1.60AU$0.92n/a4
Oct ’24AU$0.89
AU$1.27
+43.0%
20.0%AU$1.60AU$0.92n/a4
Sep ’24AU$0.95
AU$1.28
+34.2%
19.7%AU$1.60AU$0.93n/a4
Aug ’24AU$0.91
AU$1.17
+28.2%
16.4%AU$1.40AU$0.93n/a3
Jul ’24AU$0.90
AU$1.16
+29.6%
17.3%AU$1.40AU$0.91n/a3
Jun ’24AU$0.94
AU$1.28
+35.8%
7.3%AU$1.40AU$1.17n/a3
May ’24AU$1.03
AU$1.25
+21.7%
8.5%AU$1.40AU$1.15n/a3
Apr ’24AU$0.98
AU$1.25
+27.2%
8.5%AU$1.40AU$1.15n/a3
Mar ’24AU$1.05
AU$1.54
+46.7%
18.1%AU$1.86AU$1.18AU$0.723
Feb ’24AU$1.04
AU$1.54
+48.1%
18.1%AU$1.86AU$1.18AU$0.833
Jan ’24AU$1.10
AU$1.56
+42.1%
18.2%AU$1.86AU$1.18AU$0.913
Dec ’23AU$1.18
AU$1.56
+32.5%
18.2%AU$1.86AU$1.18AU$0.813
Nov ’23AU$1.25
AU$1.56
+25.6%
18.2%AU$1.86AU$1.18AU$0.833
Oct ’23AU$1.19
AU$1.51
+27.1%
18.5%AU$1.86AU$1.18AU$0.893
Sep ’23AU$1.15
AU$1.45
+25.8%
20.5%AU$1.86AU$1.18AU$0.953
Aug ’23AU$1.10
AU$1.58
+43.8%
17.5%AU$1.85AU$1.30AU$0.912
Jul ’23AU$1.03
AU$1.73
+68.0%
6.9%AU$1.85AU$1.61AU$0.902
Jun ’23AU$1.03
AU$1.73
+68.0%
6.9%AU$1.85AU$1.61AU$0.942
May ’23AU$1.15
AU$1.73
+51.1%
6.9%AU$1.85AU$1.61AU$1.032
Apr ’23AU$1.19
AU$1.71
+43.3%
8.5%AU$1.85AU$1.56AU$0.982
Mar ’23AU$1.36
AU$1.45
+6.4%
26.5%AU$1.85AU$0.93AU$1.053

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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