HMC Capital Limited

CHIA:HMC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.9b

HMC Capital Valuation

Is HMC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HMC (A$7.63) is trading above our estimate of fair value (A$6.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HMC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HMC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HMC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue33.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA92.9x
PEG Ratio2.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HMC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HMC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average81.6x
BWP BWP Trust
14.9x-3.8%AU$2.7b
RGN Region Group
158x21.3%AU$2.7b
CQR Charter Hall Retail REIT
121.7x22.3%AU$2.1b
HDN HomeCo Daily Needs REIT
32x15.4%AU$2.6b
HMC HMC Capital
43.8x19.1%AU$2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HMC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.8x) compared to the peer average (81.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HMC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Retail REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a16.7%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a16.7%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.8x) compared to the Global Retail REITs industry average (20x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HMC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HMC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio43.8x
Fair PE Ratio28.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HMC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$7.63
AU$7.82
+2.5%
9.3%AU$9.01AU$6.35n/a9
Sep ’25AU$8.47
AU$7.82
-7.7%
9.3%AU$9.01AU$6.35n/a9
Aug ’25AU$8.05
AU$7.28
-9.6%
10.2%AU$8.37AU$5.99n/a9
Jul ’25AU$7.00
AU$7.15
+2.1%
9.1%AU$7.97AU$5.99n/a9
Jun ’25AU$7.16
AU$7.00
-2.3%
8.7%AU$7.97AU$5.99n/a8
May ’25AU$6.26
AU$6.75
+7.8%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Apr ’25AU$7.17
AU$6.72
-6.2%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Mar ’25AU$6.96
AU$6.72
-3.3%
11.9%AU$8.04AU$5.24n/a10
Feb ’25AU$5.99
AU$5.55
-7.3%
9.7%AU$6.35AU$4.54n/a10
Jan ’25AU$6.16
AU$5.33
-13.5%
10.2%AU$6.00AU$4.35n/a10
Dec ’24AU$4.90
AU$5.33
+8.7%
10.1%AU$6.00AU$4.35n/a10
Nov ’24AU$4.28
AU$5.30
+23.9%
10.6%AU$6.00AU$4.35n/a9
Oct ’24AU$4.71
AU$5.40
+14.6%
9.8%AU$6.00AU$4.54n/a9
Sep ’24AU$5.38
AU$5.31
-1.2%
10.7%AU$6.00AU$4.51AU$8.4710
Aug ’24AU$5.19
AU$4.90
-5.6%
11.1%AU$5.80AU$3.81AU$8.0510
Jul ’24AU$5.06
AU$4.91
-3.0%
10.8%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$7.0010
Jun ’24AU$4.30
AU$4.84
+12.7%
10.2%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$7.1610
May ’24AU$4.05
AU$4.88
+20.4%
10.8%AU$5.60AU$3.81AU$6.2610
Apr ’24AU$3.60
AU$4.88
+35.6%
12.4%AU$5.78AU$3.81AU$7.179
Mar ’24AU$4.25
AU$5.00
+17.6%
13.7%AU$5.78AU$3.24AU$6.9610
Feb ’24AU$4.70
AU$5.31
+13.1%
14.2%AU$5.90AU$3.30AU$5.9910
Jan ’24AU$4.27
AU$5.42
+26.9%
15.2%AU$6.27AU$3.30AU$6.1611
Dec ’23AU$4.82
AU$5.50
+14.2%
16.6%AU$6.70AU$3.30AU$4.9011
Nov ’23AU$4.97
AU$5.80
+16.6%
11.5%AU$6.70AU$4.29AU$4.2811
Oct ’23AU$4.47
AU$5.80
+29.7%
11.5%AU$6.70AU$4.29AU$4.7111
Sep ’23AU$4.75
AU$5.80
+22.0%
11.5%AU$6.70AU$4.29AU$5.3811

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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