HomeCo Daily Needs REIT

ASX:HDN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.4b

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT Valuation

Is HDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HDN (A$1.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HDN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HDN?

Key metric: As HDN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HDN. This is calculated by dividing HDN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HDN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29.6x
EarningsAU$82.00m
Market CapAU$2.43b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HDN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average71.2x
RGN Region Group
146.5x22.8%AU$2.5b
BWP BWP Trust
13.6x-3.8%AU$2.4b
CQR Charter Hall Retail REIT
106.8x22.3%AU$1.8b
VCX Vicinity Centres
17.8x6.3%AU$9.7b
HDN HomeCo Daily Needs REIT
29.6x20.0%AU$2.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x) compared to the peer average (71.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HDN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Retail REITs Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HDN 29.6xIndustry Avg. 19.3xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x) compared to the Global Retail REITs industry average (19.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HDN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HDN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.6x
Fair PE Ratio24x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.17
AU$1.36
+16.6%
5.5%AU$1.47AU$1.19n/a10
Dec ’25AU$1.25
AU$1.36
+8.7%
5.5%AU$1.47AU$1.19n/a10
Nov ’25AU$1.23
AU$1.36
+10.5%
5.5%AU$1.47AU$1.19n/a10
Oct ’25AU$1.25
AU$1.35
+8.2%
5.4%AU$1.47AU$1.19n/a10
Sep ’25AU$1.26
AU$1.36
+7.6%
4.8%AU$1.45AU$1.19n/a12
Aug ’25AU$1.27
AU$1.34
+5.7%
6.5%AU$1.45AU$1.14n/a12
Jul ’25AU$1.19
AU$1.35
+13.8%
4.9%AU$1.45AU$1.21n/a12
Jun ’25AU$1.21
AU$1.35
+11.5%
4.9%AU$1.45AU$1.21n/a12
May ’25AU$1.21
AU$1.35
+11.5%
5.1%AU$1.45AU$1.18n/a13
Apr ’25AU$1.27
AU$1.35
+6.0%
5.1%AU$1.45AU$1.18n/a13
Mar ’25AU$1.24
AU$1.35
+9.0%
5.1%AU$1.45AU$1.18n/a13
Feb ’25AU$1.24
AU$1.34
+8.6%
5.0%AU$1.45AU$1.19n/a13
Jan ’25AU$1.22
AU$1.33
+8.8%
5.3%AU$1.45AU$1.19n/a13
Dec ’24AU$1.13
AU$1.33
+17.4%
5.3%AU$1.45AU$1.19AU$1.2513
Nov ’24AU$1.06
AU$1.36
+28.6%
4.4%AU$1.45AU$1.26AU$1.2312
Oct ’24AU$1.16
AU$1.37
+18.5%
4.6%AU$1.45AU$1.26AU$1.2512
Sep ’24AU$1.21
AU$1.37
+13.1%
4.6%AU$1.45AU$1.26AU$1.2612
Aug ’24AU$1.20
AU$1.39
+16.5%
5.9%AU$1.50AU$1.24AU$1.2712
Jul ’24AU$1.18
AU$1.43
+21.6%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.1912
Jun ’24AU$1.22
AU$1.44
+18.4%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.2111
May ’24AU$1.21
AU$1.44
+19.4%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.2111
Apr ’24AU$1.16
AU$1.44
+24.6%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.2711
Mar ’24AU$1.28
AU$1.44
+12.9%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.2411
Feb ’24AU$1.38
AU$1.44
+5.0%
4.9%AU$1.55AU$1.30AU$1.2411
Jan ’24AU$1.29
AU$1.44
+12.3%
5.8%AU$1.57AU$1.29AU$1.2212
Dec ’23AU$1.31
AU$1.44
+9.8%
5.9%AU$1.57AU$1.29AU$1.1312

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 07:43
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is covered by 15 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Benjamin BrayshawBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Nicholas McGarrigleBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Andrew MacFarlaneBell Potter