HomeCo Daily Needs REIT

ASX:HDN Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$2.6b

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT Valuation

Is HDN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HDN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HDN (A$1.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HDN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HDN?

Key metric: As HDN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HDN. This is calculated by dividing HDN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HDN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.3x
EarningsAU$82.00m
Market CapAU$2.57b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HDN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HDN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average72.7x
RGN Region Group
144.5x21.3%AU$2.5b
BWP BWP Trust
13.6x-3.8%AU$2.5b
CQR Charter Hall Retail REIT
114.9x22.3%AU$2.0b
VCX Vicinity Centres
17.8x6.3%AU$9.7b
HDN HomeCo Daily Needs REIT
31.3x20.0%AU$2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HDN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.3x) compared to the peer average (72.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HDN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Retail REITs Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HDN 31.3xIndustry Avg. 20.7xNo. of Companies13PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.3x) compared to the Global Retail REITs industry average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HDN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HDN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.3x
Fair PE Ratio24.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HDN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HDN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$1.24
AU$1.36
+10.0%
5.5%AU$1.47AU$1.19n/a10
Nov ’25AU$1.23
AU$1.36
+10.5%
5.5%AU$1.47AU$1.19n/a10
Oct ’25AU$1.25
AU$1.35
+8.2%
5.4%AU$1.47AU$1.19n/a10
Sep ’25AU$1.26
AU$1.36
+7.6%
4.8%AU$1.45AU$1.19n/a12
Aug ’25AU$1.27
AU$1.34
+5.7%
6.5%AU$1.45AU$1.14n/a12
Jul ’25AU$1.19
AU$1.35
+13.8%
4.9%AU$1.45AU$1.21n/a12
Jun ’25AU$1.21
AU$1.35
+11.5%
4.9%AU$1.45AU$1.21n/a12
May ’25AU$1.21
AU$1.35
+11.5%
5.1%AU$1.45AU$1.18n/a13
Apr ’25AU$1.27
AU$1.35
+6.0%
5.1%AU$1.45AU$1.18n/a13
Mar ’25AU$1.24
AU$1.35
+9.0%
5.1%AU$1.45AU$1.18n/a13
Feb ’25AU$1.24
AU$1.34
+8.6%
5.0%AU$1.45AU$1.19n/a13
Jan ’25AU$1.22
AU$1.33
+8.8%
5.3%AU$1.45AU$1.19n/a13
Dec ’24AU$1.13
AU$1.33
+17.4%
5.3%AU$1.45AU$1.19n/a13
Nov ’24AU$1.06
AU$1.36
+28.6%
4.4%AU$1.45AU$1.26AU$1.2312
Oct ’24AU$1.16
AU$1.37
+18.5%
4.6%AU$1.45AU$1.26AU$1.2512
Sep ’24AU$1.21
AU$1.37
+13.1%
4.6%AU$1.45AU$1.26AU$1.2612
Aug ’24AU$1.20
AU$1.39
+16.5%
5.9%AU$1.50AU$1.24AU$1.2712
Jul ’24AU$1.18
AU$1.43
+21.6%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.1912
Jun ’24AU$1.22
AU$1.44
+18.4%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.2111
May ’24AU$1.21
AU$1.44
+19.4%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.2111
Apr ’24AU$1.16
AU$1.44
+24.6%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.2711
Mar ’24AU$1.28
AU$1.44
+12.9%
3.8%AU$1.50AU$1.33AU$1.2411
Feb ’24AU$1.38
AU$1.44
+5.0%
4.9%AU$1.55AU$1.30AU$1.2411
Jan ’24AU$1.29
AU$1.44
+12.3%
5.8%AU$1.57AU$1.29AU$1.2212
Dec ’23AU$1.31
AU$1.44
+9.8%
5.9%AU$1.57AU$1.29AU$1.1312
Nov ’23AU$1.30
AU$1.47
+13.4%
6.5%AU$1.62AU$1.29AU$1.0612

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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