PEXA Group Limited (ASX:PXA) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Investors in PEXA Group Limited (ASX:PXA) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.9% to close at AU$13.98 following the release of its full-year results. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at AU$340m, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for PEXA Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from PEXA Group's twelve analysts is for revenues of AU$400.5m in 2025. This reflects a decent 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 73% to AU$0.027 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$394.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.11 in 2025. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of AU$15.14, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic PEXA Group analyst has a price target of AU$17.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$10.57. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await PEXA Group shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that PEXA Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting PEXA Group to become unprofitable next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple PEXA Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of PEXA Group's balance sheet, and whether we think PEXA Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.