A Closer Look at CSL (ASX:CSL) Valuation Following Capital Markets Day and Guidance Downgrade

CSL (ASX:CSL) is in the spotlight as it hosts its Capital Markets Day event, presenting strategic priorities and growth initiatives for investors. The timing comes after a recent guidance downgrade and market volatility.

See our latest analysis for CSL.

Despite promising long-term trends in core plasma and vaccine markets, CSL’s share price return has slid sharply this year, with a 30-day drop of 14.3% and a year-to-date fall of 37.3%. After briefly rallying on hopes for operational improvements, the momentum has faded following October’s revenue guidance downgrade and board changes. This has led to a one-year total shareholder return of -37%. Investors are now closely watching management’s strategic resets for signs of a turnaround.

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The stock’s sharp slide and deep discounts to analyst targets raise a key question for investors: is the recent weakness a sign CSL is undervalued and ripe for a rebound, or is the market already factoring in future risks and slowing growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 28.5% Undervalued

CSL's most watched narrative points to a substantial gap between the analyst fair value and the last close, highlighting optimism despite recent falls. Supporters of this view see notable upside, provided certain catalysts deliver as expected.

CSL is undertaking significant operational transformation initiatives, targeting over $0.5 billion in cost savings by FY28, focusing on increased efficiency in plasma collection, manufacturing, and R&D, which should expand margins and support stronger net earnings growth as these benefits are realized.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this valuation stacks up? The narrative leans on aggressive improvements in profitability and margin expansion, as well as ambitious growth in new therapies. Unpack the assumptions that could reshape CSL’s price tag.

Result: Fair Value of $246.49 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks such as ongoing price competition and slower uptake of new products could challenge even the most optimistic forecasts for CSL’s recovery.

Find out about the key risks to this CSL narrative.

Build Your Own CSL Narrative

If you want to dig into the numbers yourself, or offer a different perspective, you can build your own narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 6 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding CSL.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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