Arovella Therapeutics Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of ALA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ALA (A$0.19) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$5.62)

Is ALA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow

Simply Wall St

AU$5.62

Fair Value

96.6% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ALA (A$0.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$5.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALA?

Key metric: As ALA barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for ALA. This is calculated by dividing ALA's market cap by their current book value.
What is ALA's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio	17.9x
Book	AU$11.23m
Market Cap	AU$201.28m

ALA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	96.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-21.3x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does ALA's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for ALA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.7x
VLS Vita Life Sciences	2.3x	n/a	AU$109.9m
LTP LTR Pharma	45.5x	n/a	AU$133.9m
VIT Vitura Health	1.2x	n/a	AU$46.5m
SPL Starpharma Holdings	1.8x	n/a	AU$50.2m
ALA Arovella Therapeutics	17.9x	47.2%	AU$201.3m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: ALA is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (17.9x) compared to the peer average (12.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does ALA's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Pharmaceuticals Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Book	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
LGP Little Green Pharma	0.4x	n/a	US$19.71m
EOF Ecofibre	0.3x	n/a	US$7.02m
CGB Cann Global	0.5x	n/a	US$3.69m

No more companies available in this PB range

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: ALA is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (17.9x) compared to the Australian Pharmaceuticals industry average (2.8x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALA's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALA PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	17.9x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ALA's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Price Target

Consensus Narrative from 1 Analyst

AU$0.33

Fair Value

42.4% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/17 10:00
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Arovella Therapeutics Limited is covered by 2 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Nidhi Singh	Edison Investment Research
Andrew Goodsall	MST Financial Services Pty Limited