Wagners Holding Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of WGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

WGN (A$1.38) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (A$1.67)

Is WGN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WGN (A$1.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WGN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WGN?

Key metric: As WGN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for WGN. This is calculated by dividing WGN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is WGN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	25x
Earnings	AU$10.28m
Market Cap	AU$257.04m

WGN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.1x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WGN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WGN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	34.7x
ALK Alkane Resources	16.9x	36.3%	AU$305.6m
JHX James Hardie Industries	36.6x	17.8%	AU$24.2b
BIS Bisalloy Steel Group	11.4x	n/a	AU$182.5m
PGH Pact Group Holdings	73.7x	n/a	AU$278.9m
WGN Wagners Holding	25x	18.5%	AU$257.0m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WGN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the peer average (34.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WGN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Basic Materials Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the Global Basic Materials industry average (16.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WGN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WGN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	25x
Fair PE Ratio	16.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WGN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	AU$1.38	AU$1.27 -8.0%	22.0%	AU$1.55	AU$0.99	n/a	2
Nov ’25	AU$1.32	AU$1.12 -14.8%	11.6%	AU$1.25	AU$0.99	n/a	2
Oct ’25	AU$0.85	AU$1.12 +31.0%	11.6%	AU$1.25	AU$0.99	n/a	2
Sep ’25	AU$0.89	AU$1.12 +26.6%	11.6%	AU$1.25	AU$0.99	n/a	2
Aug ’25	AU$0.93	AU$1.12 +20.4%	11.6%	AU$1.25	AU$0.99	n/a	2
May ’24	AU$0.77	AU$1.12 +45.8%	43.5%	AU$1.60	AU$0.63	AU$0.94	2
Apr ’24	AU$0.61	AU$1.12 +82.8%	43.5%	AU$1.60	AU$0.63	AU$0.96	2
Mar ’24	AU$0.57	AU$0.96 +69.0%	46.8%	AU$1.60	AU$0.63	AU$0.91	3
Feb ’24	AU$0.73	AU$1.11 +51.6%	31.7%	AU$1.60	AU$0.82	AU$0.90	3
Jan ’24	AU$0.80	AU$1.11 +39.2%	31.7%	AU$1.60	AU$0.82	AU$1.01	3
Dec ’23	AU$0.77	AU$1.11 +44.7%	31.7%	AU$1.60	AU$0.82	AU$0.82	3
Nov ’23	AU$0.76	AU$1.11 +45.6%	31.7%	AU$1.60	AU$0.82	AU$0.92	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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