Aurelia Metals Limited

ASX:AMI Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$380.8m

Aurelia Metals Valuation

Is AMI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AMI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
AU$1.66
Fair Value
86.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AMI (A$0.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$1.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AMI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AMI?

Key metric: As AMI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AMI. This is calculated by dividing AMI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AMI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.7x
EarningsAU$14.25m
Market CapAU$380.83m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AMI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AMI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.1x
GNG GR Engineering Services
11.9xn/aAU$460.2m
OMH OM Holdings
16.5x21.0%AU$244.6m
MLX Metals X
4.4xn/aAU$452.1m
JMS Jupiter Mines
7.6xn/aAU$294.2m
AMI Aurelia Metals
26.7x36.7%AU$380.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the peer average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AMI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.8x-0.5%US$251.33m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.2xn/aUS$123.04m
CEL Challenger Gold
1.4xn/aUS$65.83m
IDA Indiana Resources
1.1xn/aUS$32.35m
AMI 26.7xIndustry Avg. 11.5xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AMI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AMI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.7x
Fair PE Ratio23.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AMI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.23
AU$0.30
+34.8%
12.1%AU$0.35AU$0.26n/a3
Apr ’26AU$0.26
AU$0.28
+9.0%
8.3%AU$0.30AU$0.25n/a3
Mar ’26AU$0.20
AU$0.27
+35.0%
10.5%AU$0.31AU$0.25n/a3
Feb ’26AU$0.19
AU$0.27
+42.1%
10.5%AU$0.31AU$0.25n/a3
Jan ’26AU$0.17
AU$0.26
+54.9%
7.8%AU$0.29AU$0.24n/a3
Dec ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.25
+47.1%
5.7%AU$0.27AU$0.24n/a3
Nov ’25AU$0.18
AU$0.25
+38.9%
5.7%AU$0.27AU$0.24n/a3
Oct ’25AU$0.18
AU$0.21
+16.7%
35.8%AU$0.26AU$0.08n/a4
Sep ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.21
+38.7%
36.4%AU$0.27AU$0.08n/a4
Aug ’25AU$0.17
AU$0.22
+29.4%
37.1%AU$0.28AU$0.08n/a4
Jul ’25AU$0.19
AU$0.21
+9.2%
36.1%AU$0.27AU$0.08n/a4
Jun ’25AU$0.18
AU$0.20
+9.5%
35.2%AU$0.25AU$0.08n/a4
May ’25AU$0.19
AU$0.20
+2.6%
34.5%AU$0.25AU$0.08n/a4
Apr ’25AU$0.15
AU$0.17
+11.3%
34.6%AU$0.23AU$0.08AU$0.264
Mar ’25AU$0.14
AU$0.19
+43.2%
16.0%AU$0.22AU$0.15AU$0.203
Feb ’25AU$0.12
AU$0.19
+62.3%
18.2%AU$0.22AU$0.14AU$0.193
Jan ’25AU$0.11
AU$0.19
+69.7%
18.2%AU$0.22AU$0.14AU$0.173
Dec ’24AU$0.10
AU$0.18
+74.6%
16.9%AU$0.21AU$0.14AU$0.173
Nov ’24AU$0.097
AU$0.18
+89.0%
16.9%AU$0.21AU$0.14AU$0.183
Oct ’24AU$0.089
AU$0.27
+197.8%
54.3%AU$0.51AU$0.14AU$0.184
Sep ’24AU$0.089
AU$0.26
+194.9%
55.7%AU$0.51AU$0.13AU$0.154
Aug ’24AU$0.091
AU$0.26
+180.2%
59.1%AU$0.51AU$0.12AU$0.174
Jul ’24AU$0.093
AU$0.26
+179.6%
57.5%AU$0.51AU$0.12AU$0.194
Jun ’24AU$0.098
AU$0.31
+216.3%
46.3%AU$0.51AU$0.18AU$0.183
May ’24AU$0.14
AU$0.33
+135.7%
38.6%AU$0.51AU$0.23AU$0.193
Apr ’24AU$0.13
AU$0.37
+196.0%
28.9%AU$0.51AU$0.25AU$0.153
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 3 Analysts
AU$0.30
Fair Value
25.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/13 21:35
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/11 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Aurelia Metals Limited is covered by 8 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ray ChantryEL&C Baillieu
Mike MillikanEuroz Hartleys Securities Limited
Mitch RyanJefferies LLC