Nickel Industries Limited

CHIA:NIC Stock Report

Market Cap: AU$3.9b

Nickel Industries Valuation

Is NIC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NIC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NIC (A$0.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value (A$13.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NIC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NIC?

Key metric: As NIC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NIC. This is calculated by dividing NIC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NIC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.5x
EarningsUS$99.61m
Market CapUS$2.54b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NIC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NIC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average41.7x
PLS Pilbara Minerals
30.6x25.8%AU$7.9b
MIN Mineral Resources
52.5x39.6%AU$6.6b
ILU Iluka Resources
8.4x5.5%AU$2.3b
LYC Lynas Rare Earths
75.2x42.7%AU$6.4b
NIC Nickel Industries
25.5x49.7%AU$3.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NIC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.5x) compared to the peer average (41.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NIC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the AU Metals and Mining Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated
1.9x-13.3%US$243.72m
RHI Red Hill Minerals
1.8xn/aUS$181.28m
GRR Grange Resources
2.6xn/aUS$176.74m
PTN Patronus Resources
2.4xn/aUS$68.10m
NIC 25.5xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies12PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NIC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.5x) compared to the Australian Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NIC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NIC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.5x
Fair PE Ratio38.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NIC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NIC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentAU$0.91
AU$1.15
+26.7%
17.8%AU$1.60AU$1.00n/a9
Nov ’25AU$0.92
AU$1.10
+19.0%
13.4%AU$1.47AU$1.00n/a8
Oct ’25AU$0.92
AU$1.27
+38.4%
49.3%AU$2.99AU$0.85n/a9
Sep ’25AU$0.84
AU$1.29
+52.8%
48.4%AU$2.99AU$0.85n/a9
Aug ’25AU$0.83
AU$1.29
+54.6%
47.6%AU$2.99AU$0.95n/a9
Jul ’25AU$0.81
AU$1.33
+64.3%
45.8%AU$2.99AU$0.95n/a9
Jun ’25AU$0.94
AU$1.34
+42.0%
45.1%AU$2.99AU$0.95n/a9
May ’25AU$0.96
AU$1.33
+38.2%
46.1%AU$2.99AU$0.90n/a9
Apr ’25AU$0.81
AU$1.27
+57.9%
53.7%AU$2.99AU$0.80n/a8
Mar ’25AU$0.77
AU$1.03
+33.8%
23.7%AU$1.53AU$0.80n/a6
Feb ’25AU$0.78
AU$1.03
+32.1%
23.7%AU$1.53AU$0.80n/a6
Jan ’25AU$0.70
AU$1.06
+51.2%
31.9%AU$1.80AU$0.80n/a6
Dec ’24AU$0.72
AU$1.13
+57.3%
30.2%AU$1.80AU$0.80n/a7
Nov ’24AU$0.78
AU$1.15
+46.6%
29.0%AU$1.80AU$0.80AU$0.927
Oct ’24AU$0.75
AU$1.13
+50.4%
25.4%AU$1.64AU$0.80AU$0.927
Sep ’24AU$0.81
AU$1.15
+41.4%
23.8%AU$1.64AU$0.90AU$0.847
Aug ’24AU$0.84
AU$1.14
+35.5%
24.6%AU$1.64AU$0.85AU$0.837
Jul ’24AU$0.88
AU$1.27
+44.1%
24.4%AU$1.84AU$0.90AU$0.818
Jun ’24AU$0.87
AU$1.26
+44.3%
23.5%AU$1.73AU$0.90AU$0.948
May ’24AU$0.95
AU$1.30
+36.2%
25.2%AU$1.87AU$0.90AU$0.968
Apr ’24AU$0.90
AU$1.28
+42.7%
25.0%AU$1.87AU$0.92AU$0.817
Mar ’24AU$0.98
AU$1.31
+33.3%
23.0%AU$1.87AU$1.00AU$0.777
Feb ’24AU$1.13
AU$1.30
+15.6%
23.6%AU$1.85AU$0.90AU$0.787
Jan ’24AU$0.98
AU$1.24
+26.1%
25.6%AU$1.71AU$0.80AU$0.707
Dec ’23AU$1.01
AU$1.19
+18.1%
29.2%AU$1.71AU$0.80AU$0.727
Nov ’23AU$0.78
AU$1.16
+49.1%
31.9%AU$1.71AU$0.73AU$0.787

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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